In Week 2, Penn State will head on the road for the first time in the Matt Campbell era, but their trip isn’t exactly into enemy territory. Sure, the last time the Nittany Lions played Temple at Lincoln Financial Field, Matt Rhule led the Owls to an upset in 2015, but this visit to Philadelphia figures to be much smoother.
Penn State is a big road favorite over Temple in Week 2, after bludgeoning Marshall 45-0 in Beaver Stadium last Saturday. Campbell’s debut couldn’t have gone better, as he left the field to the sound of fans still in attendance chanting his name. And even on the road this week, if he does it again, there may be more chants raining down from the Eastern PA Penn State fans.
Temple also got to 1-0 last week, downing FCS Rhode Island by a not-so-overwhelming 38-14 margin. K.C. Keeler’s team will need to play much better in Game 2 of his second year at the helm to avoid the Nittany Lions winning by an even larger margin.
Penn State vs.Temple odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State -4000
- Temple +1400
Spread
- Penn State -23.5 (-120)
- Temple +23.5 (-102)
Total
- 50.5 (over -115/under -105)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Taylor Mouser will need to find the balance that eluded his Penn State offense last week
There wasn’t much that the Temple defense did well last season, but its two strongest metrics were passing success rate (52nd percentile) and explosive pass rate (46th percentile). That’s not to say that Penn State and Rocco Becht are entering a no-fly zone in Philadelphia this week, just that Keeler and defensive coordinator Brian Smith put a greater emphasis on limiting big plays through the air.
Last week, Marshall sold out against Penn State offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser’s heavy personnel looks with multiple tight ends on the field. The Thundering Herd stacked the box to stop the run, and did a reasonable job of it, limiting the Nittany Lions to a 45% rushing success rate and just 3.6 yards per carry.
Putting additional big bodies on the field, however, left Marshall very susceptible through the air, where Becht went 13/18 for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Penn State, even with Alex Manske and Connor Barry both seeing significant second-half action, finished with a 61% pass success rate and an 18% explosive pass rate.
That’s exactly what an offense that wants to live in 12- and 13-personnel must do to defenses that react as Marshall did. Then, when they don’t - instead staying in nickel and playing two high safeties - you need to punish them for it on the ground. That’s what the Nittany Lions need to be this week: a ground-and-pound offense that has real explosiveness in the backfield.
Penn State should run it more than well enough, but the game will likely tend to be lower-scoring because of that approach. Defensively, D’Anton Lynn’s group shouldn’t have any issues. So, I’ll predict another emphatic Penn State win, even if the score isn’t quite as lopsided as last week.
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