As the Penn State Nittany Lions prepare to compete in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl against the Clemson Tigers, a matchup that would've seemed like the National Championship Game – or at worst, a New Year's Six semifinal – if presented to fans back in August, there are 12 other teams preparing to take part in the 12th edition of the College Football Playoff.
It took just one year of the 12-team format for everybody to realize just how flawed the system was. Sure, it's still a bit problematic, with two presumed blowouts on tap this Saturday in Eugene and Oxford due to the inclusion of two Group of Five teams in this year's bracket, but it's still better than it was a year ago, when the top four conference champions were guaranteed first-round byes.
Only two of the top eight teams in the final pre-CFP 2024 rankings were actually conference champions, so the seeding list looked more like a roulette wheel than an actual top-12 ranking of the 12 teams competing for a national title.
Penn State, oddly enough, benefited from the ridiculousness. They were the No. 4 team in the country behind Oregon, Georgia, and Texas, but they were seeded No. 6 as the second-best team among those that did not win a conference championship game (behind Texas).
So they opened up with a first-round home game against the No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs (despite the fact that SMU had literally just lost the ACC title game to No. 12 seed Clemson, but that's a subject for another day).
Following their unsurprising blowout win in that one, they took on the No. 3 seed Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State, of course, was actually ranked No. 9, but was seeded third behind only Oregon and Georgia due to the blatantly flawed format. Penn State handled them with ease, as expected.
That set up an Orange Bowl matchup against the No. 7 seed (but No. 5-ranked) Notre Dame Fighting Irish, which Penn State ultimately lost in heartbreaking fashion by a score of 27-24.
What if this year's format had been in place for 2024?
The big change for this year was the fact that the top four conference champions were no longer guaranteed first-round byes.
The top five conference champions were all guaranteed CFP bids, as were the top seven remaining teams in the final pre-CFP rankings. Those 12 teams were then simply seeded from No. 1 to No. 12, based strictly on those rankings.
Penn State, as 2024's No. 4 team in the final pre-CFP rankings, would have gotten a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed, but this change actually would have hurt them. Instead of winning two CFP games, they'd have likely been one-and-done.
Notre Dame would have been the No. 5 seed. Assuming they would have taken care of No. 12 seed Clemson, it would have set up the Penn State-Notre Dame matchup one round earlier than it actually happened.
Sure, it might have gone Penn State's way, but based strictly on the actual result of January's game, it's hard to argue against the idea that Penn State didn't benefit from the original 12-team format being in place a year ago.
2025 College Football Playoff: Looking ahead
While Penn State is preparing to wrap up their season in a baseball stadium in a game they only earned the right to play in by beating lowly Michigan State and Rutgers, plus Nebraska's backup quarterback, to conclude the regular season, three other Big Ten teams are set to compete in this year's 12-team tournament for the right to be crowned national champions.
Unlike Penn State, which fired head coach James Franklin after his 0-3 start in conference play, both Ohio State and Oregon actually managed to meet their high preseason expectations, and Indiana managed not only to meet them, but to exceed them, doing so as undefeated Big Ten champions to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP.
The 2025 format isn't perfect, and it's likely to change again before long; in fact, it already has changed slightly for 2026. But funnily enough, had 2024's format remained in place for this year, Ohio State would currently be on course for a cakewalk that somehow manages to put Penn State's to shame from a year ago.
The Buckeyes would be the No. 5 seed, rather than the No. 2 seed, and they would open up against the No. 12 seed James Madison Dukes of the Sun Belt. After winning that game by 50+ points, they would then advance to blow out the No. 4 seed Tulane Green Wave, the two-loss champion of the American Athletic Conference.
Their reward for losing the Big Ten championship game to Indiana would have been similar to Penn State's reward for losing to Oregon in 2024, except they would have completely avoided the Power Four until the national semifinals.
So at least the 2025 format is a step in the right direction.