The first year of the new 12-team College Football Playoff format saw the top four conference champions seeded from No. 1 through No. 4, and the fifth best conference champion lumped in with the nation's top seven at-large teams from No. 5 through No. 12.
It took only one season for this format to demonstrate to the world that it does not particularly reward regular season success, or even conference championship success, when it comes to seeding and first-round and second-round playoff matchups. After the four teams with first-round byes combined for zero wins, the format has been slightly altered for 2025.
Beginning this coming season, the teams actually ranked from No. 1 to No. 4 are set to be seeded from No. 1 to No. 4. The entire 12-team bracket is still set to consist of the top five conference champions, but being among the top four conference champions no longer guarantees a team a first-round bye.
It's a move that had been rumored pretty much ever since the 2024 CFP got underway, and it's a move that makes a ton of sense, given the fact that recent conference realignments have effectively resulted in the "Power Five" becoming a "Power Two", featuring the Big Ten and the SEC.
The CFP format changes could doom Penn State football
By losing the Big Ten Championship game to the Oregon Ducks in 2024, Penn State earned themselves the No. 6 seed. Contrary to popular belief, the fifth-ranked conference champion was not guaranteed the No. 12 seed; they were simply lumped in with the remaining seven teams. But for some reason, the Clemson Tigers were seeded behind the same SMU Mustangs team they just beat in the ACC Championship, and Penn State got to play an overrated No. 11 seed SMU.
After smoking SMU, they were rewarded with a game against the nation's No. 9 team, the Boise State Broncos. But because Boise State ended the season as the third highest ranked conference champion, they were technically the No. 3 seed ahead of the Fiesta Bowl.
So Penn State got a de facto cakewalk to the national semifinals, having avoided playing anybody from the Big Ten or the SEC. In fact, they continued their power conference avoidance tour against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but their run came to an end at the hands of the Irish in the Orange Bowl.
Under the new format, getting such an easy path is simply not feasible with Penn State's consistent lack of signature pre-playoff victories. To put it in perspective, the new format means that Penn State actually would have been the No. 4 seed last year, which would have earned them a first-round bye. Notre Dame would have been the No. 5 seed. Using the same results that actually transpired in 2024, Franklin's team would have been a one-and-done.
The Ducks were "rewarded" with a first-round bye and a second-round game against the No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes, who beat Penn State in the regular season for the eighth year in a row. Even after beating Penn State, Ohio State avoided the Big Ten Championship entirely with a regular season-ending loss to the Michigan Wolverines.
In the Rose Bowl, Oregon never stood a chance against the team that, under the new format, would not have been able to play them until the national championship. And quite frankly, Penn State wouldn't have stood a chance, either.
Ohio State's national championship-winning path included victories over the SEC's Tennessee Volunteers, Oregon, the SEC's Texas Longhorns, and Notre Dame. Look away, Nittany Lions fans: Ryan Day and Ohio State beat twice as many AP top seven teams in the span of one month as James Franklin has beaten in 11 years at Penn State.
That kind of warpath makes Penn State's wins over SMU and Boise State look laughable, but it also reemphasizes the fact that, if Franklin and company are ever to actually get over the hump and make some noise in January, they're going to need to beat the best.
The pressure is on for James Franklin to deliver for Penn State
Franklin hasn't beaten a top five team since 2016, and his Penn State record against top five programs is now just 1-14. Three of those losses came during the 2024 season against the only real competition they had to play.
Against the AP top 10, Franklin's record with Penn State is just 4-19. Prior to the win against Boise State, he had beaten just one top 10 team since 2016, with that lone victory coming against the Utah Utes in the 2023 Rose Bowl after starting quarterback Cam Rising got injured.
Unless Penn State can get over the Ohio State hump in Columbus, where Franklin has never won, on Saturday, Nov. 1, it's hard to imagine that they'll be ranked inside the top four again come time to seed the CFP teams, barring another scenario in which they back into the Big Ten Championship and actually win it for the first time in nine years.
And even if they are, it's hard to imagine that they'll be able to string together the best three wins of Franklin's career to make a national championship run.