Penn State football's 2026 schedule might look perfect on paper for new head coach Matt Campbell, but there's a major downside to it that's starting to gain more traction across the media.
The fact that the Nittany Lions avoid the major Big Ten trio of Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana is a great way for Campbell to actually determine where his team is in year one. Figuring out where Penn State lands in that second tier, middle-of-the-pack category of the conference is ideal.
What isn't ideal is potentially not playing a single ranked opponent.
The Buckeyes, Ducks, and Hoosiers will more than likely be ranked throughout the season in the Top 25. Michigan, USC, and Washington, on the other hand, aren't guarantees. Those three teams are the toughest the Nittany Lions have on their schedule. So, Penn State's placement in the country in terms of rankings could look like a poor reflection of its record.
There's a good possibility the blue and white could go anywhere between 8-4 and 11-1. That's certainly not a bad start to Campbell's tenure, but the strength of schedule matters. While the record might indicate Top 25 quality and a potential College Football Playoff bid, the schedule doesn't.
Bill Connelly of ESPN seems to agree. In his Big Ten preview, he discussed each team in the conference, including his opinion on where each could land in terms of rankings. For Penn State, it's projected to finish No. 17 in the country and No. 4 in the conference.
ESPN doesn't feel confident that Penn State is a Top 25 team
Finishing fourth in the Big Ten might feel like a stretch, but the conference schedule the Nittany Lions have can certainly get them there.
Per the projections, they're expected to have 6.2 wins on average in the conference. Including their non-conference schedule, they have a 13.6 percent chance to finish with 11 or more wins and a 99.2 percent chance to finish with six or more wins.
Six wins is below expectations, even for Campbell in his first season, considering what the schedule looks like. Logistically, Penn State should head into Week 6 vs. USC with a 5-0 record.
Again, strength (or lack thereof in this case) of schedule matters when it comes to rankings. The Nittany Lions could beat any combination of USC, Michigan, and Washington and it could still not be incredibly impressive.
"They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 -- neither would surprise me much," Connelly said of the blue and white.
If those teams are ranked by the time Penn State faces them, yes, those wins will carry more weight and it will be reflected in the Top 25 placements. If those three teams fail to meet their 2026 expectations, those wins will eventually not matter as much and will negatively impact rankings and CFP possibilities. The same thing happened last year. Beating the Nittany Lions soon became expected, especially for top teams in the nation.
Now, there's also a chance Campbell finishes with a pretty average season. It's not a guarantee that he finishes with double-digit wins.
"Projecting PSU 17th in the country feels about 10-15 spots too high to me," Connelly added.
Finishing anywhere between 26th and 40th in the country isn't off the table for Penn State. There's a wide range of where it could land by the end of the season, as Connelly explained.
It's easy to look at the schedule and think Campbell has a cakewalk to the CFP. It's more likely that strength of schedule will knock the Nittany Lions out of CFP contention, Campbell will have a couple blips in his first season, and Penn State's record will look better than what the ranking indicates.
All possibilities are on the table, not just the optimistic ones.
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