Penn State football's 2026 schedule is very favorable to new head coach Matt Campbell as he and a nearly entirely revamped player roster and staff lay the foundation for this next Nittany Lion chapter.
Former head coach James Franklin didn't have a lot of time to fail. As soon as the results weren't coming in and the locker room was lost, Franklin was out. It took just three Big Ten games to part ways with him after just over 12 seasons.
Over his tenure, the blue and white have either finished with a losing record or been on the brink of doing so four times, excluding the 2025 season which was split with interim head coach Terry Smith. In the Big Ten from 2014-24, Franklin only had three seasons when his squad didn't finish above .500 in the conference.
Regardless of how things panned out over his tenure, Penn State hasn't been a true "dark horse" in the Big Ten. It's remained consistent as a second-tier team, teasing a top tier identity at times.
Now with Campbell in charge and a new look on the field, though, it's unsure exactly how well or how poorly the Nittany Lions will perform. While things favor the former, being realistic is important in Campbell's first few seasons.
Due to this, Bill Connelly of ESPN tabbed Penn State as a potential dark horse candidate in the conference.
It's still considered a middle-of-the-pack program in 2026; that hasn't changed. However, since it's certainly not considered a top three team in the Big Ten or a favorite to claim the Big Ten title at the end of the regular season, Campbell's team is technically a dark horse in this race.
ESPN believes Penn State vs. USC could promote the Nittany Lions as a dark horse in the Big Ten
Going beyond labeling the Nittany Lions as the potential dark horse, Connelly highlighted a game that hasn't been at the height of conversations regarding their schedule.
Michigan has been the main opponent analysts, reporters, and media have singled out as the most competitive. The Nittany Lions go to Ann Arbor, Mich. for this game, and it will be a huge contest regardless.
The week before, though, Penn State faces USC. Rather than stick with the Wolverines and follow the crowd, Connelly pointed out the Week 6 game as one of the best five Big Ten games in 2026.
"Maybe the first huge conference game of the season is an elimination game of sorts," Connelly wrote. "PSU could announce itself as a dark horse with a win here, and USC, coming off home games against Oregon and Washington, will either be trying to stay in the title race or simply stay afloat."
The Trojans are the first real test Campbell faces. After a cupcake non-conference slate and two conference games vs. Wisconsin and Northwestern, the Nittany Lions could enter Week 6 with a 5-0 record. How well they perform against USC will be a huge determinant as to how Campbell's first season will go.
Of course, Penn State could bounce back from a poor performance, but the preparedness for the Trojans matters. Campbell shouldn't need a bad loss to put the pieces together. Even if the Nittany Lions lose, it should be a good, competitive, and close game. If Penn State wins, it will make a lot of noise in the Big Ten and be a huge advantage heading into Week 7 at Michigan.
Does this make the team a dark horse candidate? That's slightly over-the-top. A Week 6 win could be followed up by anything, and not just in Week 7. It can act as a boost, for sure, for the rest of the season, but a win vs. USC doesn't mean Campbell's going to cruise through the remaining schedule. It would be a huge win, but not a defining one.
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