Matt Campbell has long been a hot name for big-time head coaching jobs around college football and even the NFL. Yet, for 10 long years, he stayed put at Iowa State. That was until Penn State came calling this offseason, after striking out on plenty of other top candidates, to finally pry Campbell out of Ames.
It seems he picked a good time to leave. Not only is Iowa State falling on hard financial times, something that seemingly played a role in his longtime athletic director, Jamie Pollard, announcing his retirement, but Penn State has a gift of a Year 1 schedule to help Campbell get off on the right foot.
The Big Ten media preseason poll from Cleveland.com was released on Monday, and though Penn State slotted in at No. 6, only two teams ahead of the Nittany Lions can be found on their 2026 schedule. That’s a huge opportunity for Campbell, but it comes with a complicated College Football Playoff catch.
10-2 almost certainly won’t get Penn State into the CFP conversation
It’s hard to say 10 wins are likely for a Big Ten team with a first-year head coach who took 39 transfers in the offseason. That’s especially true considering Matt Campbell has never been a head coach known for handling business against inferior opponents, but rather one who built his reputation punching up against top teams to pull unlikely upsets. BUT... Penn State should probably go 10-2 this season.
USC and Michigan are the two teams on Cleveland.com’s preseason poll that are ranked above the Nittany Lions, and Penn State also gets to play four of the bottom five teams. That, along with a three-game non-conference slate against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, should get Campbell to seven wins pretty quickly.
Then, there’s Wisconsin, Washington, and Minnesota, three members of the Big Ten middle class that Penn State should be more talented than, even with a huge roster churn and an expedited offseason rebuild. Win those three and you have 10 without pulling a true upset.
In most circumstances, a 10-win Big Ten team would have an excellent case for claiming an at-large bid into the CFP. Penn State, though, wouldn’t have much of an argument at all. The Nittany Lions could legitimately go 10-2 without a single ranked win. It’s not likely, but it’s in the cards. Even if Washington or Minnesota are in the back end of the top-25, those wins wouldn’t change any perceptions about the team, nor would it bolster a CFP case.
Previous narratives don’t necessarily matter, but that would also feed into the idea that Penn State can never win a big game. It’s a new regime, sure, but the CFP committee would be as dismissive as ever, and rightfully so.
If it happens, at 10-2, Penn State would essentially be last year’s Notre Dame, which lost its first two games of the season to Miami and Texas A&M and lost out on an at-large bid to Miami on the final CFP rankings reveal. Notre Dame’s only ranked wins came over No. 20 USC, which finished No. 16, and No. 22 Pitt, which finished unranked.
Both USC and Michigan, Penn State’s main chances for marquee wins of ‘quality losses,’ play all three of the conference’s presumptive best teams, Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. So, they could both end with three losses very reasonably, further damaging Penn State’s resume.
In very few outcomes does 10-2 get Penn State into the CFP. That’s the catch of the soft schedule Campbell was gifted for his first year. The bar is that much higher for reaching the CFP. It almost has to be 11-1 for the Nittany Lions, and even that may not be a slam dunk.
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