Matt Campbell’s Big Ten debut really couldn’t have gone much worse. As a 10-point favorite, Penn State got out to a 17-0 lead, thanks to one defensive score and another interception setting up a short field for the offense. Then, Campbell got conservative, tried to set on the lead too early, and watched it melt away into a gut-punch of a 24-20 loss.
The nice thing for Penn State is that it has the most favorable schedule in the Big Ten. The problem is that Northwestern was supposed to be counted amongst the favorable matchups, but the Nittany Lions are heading to Evanston for the first game at the rebuilt Ryan Field with a rest disadvantage and against a Chip Kelly-led Northwestern offense that has been one of the most efficient in the country and just gave Indiana all it could handle.
Penn State is just a 2.5-point road favorite in Week 5 and in serious danger of falling to 0-2 in Big Ten play against the program that ended James Franklin’s tenure with a 22-21 win at Beaver Stadium last year and has meaningfully improved with Kelly and transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Northwestern’s funky offense is a huge test for D’Anton Lynn on a short week
You’d love to play man coverage against Northwestern because they don’t have dynamic separators and you’d be much less influenced by all the eye candy, but you can’t because you need 11 sets of eyes on Chiles and the triple-option quirkiness of this Chip Kelly offense.
Right now, most of the triple-option stuff seems like empty calories. It may get better as they get more comfortable with it, but it’s still worth it to Kelly because it forces defenses to primarily play zone to keep their eyes on the quarterback. Aidan Chiles’ ability as a scrambler already creates some of this effect, but the constant threat of the option run game reinforces the need to have eyes in the backfield and defensive backs in the run fit.
Then, when Kelly knows he has the eyes of the defense in the backfield, he can manipulate them. He floods zones very effectively off play-action, and Chiles has been excellent at throwing into zone coverage, even when he’s asked to turn his back to the defense, which is rare for college quarterbacks.
For a player who has been underwhelming most of his career, he pairs years of starting experience with high-level arm strength, which allows him to attack tight windows in zone downfield, and he’s starting to show an impressive understanding of downfield leverage in zone.
Chip Kelly is at Northwestern; he's reached the "F it, let's get weird" stage of his career, and it's kind of beautiful.
— Josh Yourish (@JYourish3) September 30, 2026
If Penn State isn't careful, this offense could have Matt Campbell 0-2 in Big Ten play. pic.twitter.com/9a53Mbxv9g
Penn State doesn’t have the pass-rushers to neutralize Aidan Chiles
You kill this offense, like most offenses, with penetration. Indiana defensive end Stephan Daley, who just last week won his fifth year of eligibility, was constantly in the backfield. For all the positive things he’s done, Chiles’ sack-adjusted numbers aren’t nearly as impressive. He can kill you on the move, throwing off-platform or scrambling, but he can also kill his own team with huge losses on sacks and a lack of ball security.
The duality of man (Aidan Chiles) pic.twitter.com/UDo7BcHy2y
— Josh Yourish (@JYourish3) September 30, 2026
Penn State has veteran linebackers in Tony Rojas and Kooper Ebel with sideline-to-sideline speed. Lynn also has the ability to deploy Caleb Bacon, a career off-ball linebacker, on the edge. He’s more familiar with being the conflict player against option than most edges and is a great open-field tackler, so he could be used to keep tabs on Chiles. But Penn State simply doesn’t have horses along the defensive line to pressure Chiles and force him into mistakes.
You can try to blitz it because many of these plays are longer developing, but when blitzed last week, Chiles went 16/19 for 229 yards (12.1 ypa) and two touchdowns with no interceptions. So, that’s probably not a great idea.
Lynn’s best answer so far this season, and last year with USC, was to be diverse in his coverage schemes. That takes a high level of communication and familiarity, something Jim Knowles overestimated last year when he arrived in Happy Valley. That’s also difficult to do against this style of offense because it’s testing your coverage rules, and it's designed to put second- and third-level players in conflict.
The more complicated you are, the better chance you have of confusing Chiles when he flips back around after a hard play-action fake, but also, the more likely you are of having a bust in coverage.
This is not an easy prep on a short week. And it might just be a good offense.
Add us as a preferred source on Google