Penn State entered Week 4 as around a 10-point home favorite against Wisconsin, and despite winning the turnover battle, including a pick-six, it lost outright. That’s hard to do, and the oddsmakers in Vegas have taken notice, tapping the Nittany Lions as just a 2.5-point road favorite at Northwestern in Week 5.
The Wildcats, to their credit, have been much better than preseason expectations, pounding Colorado 41-7 in Week 3 and giving Indiana a real scare in Bloomington in Week 4 before losing 29-23 to the defending champions. That loss came on Friday night, so David Braun’s team also has a rest advantage and the energy of playing its first game in the newly rebuilt Ryan Field.
Typically, home-field advantage counts for about three points, so Penn State is viewed as about 5.5 points better than Northwestern, which does not guarantee a first Big Ten win for Matt Campbell. Northwestern ended James Franklin's tenure last year, and it could add to Campbell's rough start in 2026.
Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State -137
- Northwestern +114
Spread
- Penn State -2.5 (-110)
- Northwestern +2.5 (-110)
Total
- 45.5 (over -115/under -105)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
An 0-2 start in Big Ten play is absolutely in the cards for Penn State
Penn State needs to win in Week 5 at Northwestern. That’s not just to rinse the bad taste out of everyone’s mouth after a horrid offensive performance against Wisconsin and a blown 17-point lead. It’s because after Week 5, Penn State enters its toughest stretch of the season, hosting USC for the White Out in Week 6 before visiting Michigan in Week 7.
There was some belief that Penn State could make the College Football Playoff this year, though that was tied much more to the schedule it faced rather than the talent level of the roster in Campbell’s first year. Well, any doubts about the talent in Happy Valley appear to be justified, and the toughest games on the schedule look even easier after USC and Michigan both lost at home in Week 4, but teams like Northwestern and Wisconsin both look much better than anticipated.
The Wildcats have played legitimately well this season. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is breaking out single-wing formations and tying triple-option runs to a pro-style downfield passing attack with journeyman quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has always been tantalizingly talented, and it looks to be a match made in heaven.
Plus, Northwestern’s defense has proven itself to be one of the best bend-don’t-break units in the country, and that could press on Penn State’s red zone offense, which has been a sore spot. Week 5 will by no means be a walkover for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are probably a bit better, but not by much, and the odds reflect that.
Add us as a preferred source on Google