It wasn’t officially a preseason, but it sure felt like it as Penn State mowed down Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo to get to 3-0 and climb to No. 13 in the country. In Matt Campbell’s first year, his team is already ranked just on the cusp of a College Football Playoff appearance, but it’s hard to say with any conviction how good this team really is.
Penn State needs a test, and it has one coming to town in the form of Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin Badgers. Fickell has struggled to get the program in Madison going since taking over, but this offseason he got a major investment, landing top transfer QB Colton Joseph, and despite a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, looks poised to finally walk out of the Big Ten basement.
While Fickell is desperate to cool his hot seat, Campbell is looking to build on the early-season good vibes in Happy Valley, not just with his first-ever Big Ten victory, but also by turning the game into a major recruiting showcase with over 60 recruits in attendance. There’s a lot to gain on the Penn State side, and not just in the win column.
A win over Penn State would vault the Badgers back to relevance, and with the news of star Nittany Lions wide receiver Koby Howard missing an extended period of time with an injury, the line has crept in Wisconsin’s direction.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Wisconsin +310
- Penn State -400
Spread
- Wisconsin +9.5 (-102)
- Penn State -9.5 (-120)
Total
- 43.5 (over -115/under -105)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Even without Koby Howard, Rocco Becht should have enough answers
With Koby Howard out, Andrew Rappleyea’s injury status becomes even more important. He’s questionable for the game after sustaining an injury in Week 3 and has been Penn State’s best and most complete tight end this season. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser leans heavily on tight ends in his offense and will likely crank that dial even further until Howard returns.
Regardless of Rappleyea’s status, however, Penn State’s offense, led by the most experienced quarterback in the country, should be able to do enough. It’s been an effective offense so far.
Sure, who you play matters, but still, the Nittany Lions are No. 5 in available yards. Moving it between the 20s hasn’t been an issue, and if a red zone offense that is currently No. 112 in the FBS in touchdown rate improves to just mediocre, this offense will be fine, and that improvement can happen even without Howard.
Becht likely needs to do more with his legs to help on money downs and in the red zone, which does introduce a larger injury risk, but Big Ten play is here, so the restrictor plate has to come off. I think he and his tight end room do enough to find the end zone three times, and that might be enough.
Wisconsin’s offense is improved, but it’s not yet clear if Joseph, last year’s Sun Belt offensive player of the year, is in the right system. Against Notre Dame, Wisconsin averaged 4.66 yards per play and -0.06 EPA/dropback. Penn State’s defense isn’t quite Notre Dame’s, but it’s a lot closer to the Fighting Irish than it is to Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan, which the Badgers hung 36 and 54 points on, respectively.
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