Which Penn State playmaker will emerge as Drew Allar’s No. 1 target in Week 7 vs. USC?

Penn State had to know it was coming into this season without a true No. 1 wide receiver. The offseason addition of Julian Fleming was never enough to offset the loss of KeAndre Lambert-Smith, even if he was being phased out of the offense by the time the Peach Bowl came around. There was hope that a healthy Harrison Wallace III would take over as a dominant force on the perimeter, but through the Nittany Lions 5-0 start, Drew Allar has had a different No. 1 target three times and a different leading receiver four times. 

Wallace was up to the challenge in Week 1, hauling in five of his eight targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns, but since then it’s been a revolving door of primary playmakers in first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. That production didn’t continue, so Tight end Tyler Warren has taken over as the focal point of the passing game, leading the team with 23 catches for 289 yards and three scores.

Kotelnicki has improved Allar’s efficiency from last season and the 6-foot-5 junior quarterback has been much more accurate, completing 70.9% of his passes. However, since shocking West Virginia and Bowling Green with a downfield passing attack, the Nittany Lions have reverted to a run-first offense with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen shouldering the load for the offense. 

Against USC in Week 7, Penn State should be able to run the ball with ease, which Michigan and Minnesota both did in conference wins over Lincoln Riley’s Trojans. USC, still constructed in an offense-first Pac-12 image, hasn’t proven itself to be ready for the physicality of the Big Ten, which takes some pressure off Allar and his pass-catchers. Still, the unranked Trojans and quarterback Miller Moss can put up points, and in the first big road test for Allar in his new offense, he’ll need at least one reliable pass catcher to get to 6-0. 

It’s been receiver roulette for Allar, so let’s spin the wheel and take a look at the potential prizes in Week 7. Maybe we could even determine who will be the favorite target out in LA. 

Behind Door 1: Harrison Wallace III

Wallace III has been quiet since his dominant Week 1 performance against West Virginia. His best game since that five-catch 117-yard two-touchdown outing in Morgantown, came last week against UCLA with three catches for 46 yards. In many ways, his drop-off comes from a lack of connection on deep shots. Wallace has only caught one of his four targets over 20 yards downfield this season. 

Those explosive plays are unlikely to reemerge this week against USC. While the Trojans have plenty of issues stopping the run, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has done a great job limiting chunk plays in the passing game, allowing just seven passing plays of 20+ yards, the third-fewest in the country. Wallace may have some success underneath but don’t expect a breakout from the redshirt junior or a big impact from Omari Evans, Allar’s primary deep threat. 

Behind Door 2: Liam Clifford

The younger brother of Allar’s predecessor had the best game of his career last week against the Bruins. He caught three passes for 107 yards, primarily working up the seam from the slot. Allar’s onslaught of explosive passing plays in Weeks 1 and 2 have forced defenses like Illinois and UCLA to live with two deep safeties, and finally, Allar responded by exploiting one of the biggest weaknesses of Cover 2. 

With Wallace attracting a lot of attention and Fleming struggling to establish himself in Penn State’s offense, Clifford has an opportunity to become the No. 1 wide receiver, but not this week. Slot cornerback Greedy Vance Jr. has been USC’s best player in coverage this season, allowing just one catch on six targets in 76 coverage snaps. Clifford has played 73.9% of his snaps in the slot, so Vance will limit his impact in Week 7 even as his role in Kotelnicki’s offense continues to expand. 

Behind Door No. 3: Tyler Warren

Tyler Warren has been Allar’s No. 1 target three times through Penn State’s five games. His most dominant performance came in Week 2 against Bowling Green when he made eight catches for 146 yards and with a touchdown last week against UCLA, he became the all-time leader in receiving touchdowns among Penn State tight ends. 

He could have the ideal matchup against USC if Kotelnicki can manufacture it. USC’s weakest link in coverage this season has been linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, who typically matches tight ends or linebackers. Though, the Trojans haven’t faced a tight end as good as Warren, except for Michigan’s Colston Loveland in a game where the Wolverines threw for 32 total yards. 

Warren could either draw coverage from the 6-foot 231-pound Mascarenas-Arnold who has allowed a team-high 14 catches on 16 targets for 124 yards this season, or 6-foot 204-pound safety Kamari Ramsey, which will both be physical mismatches, but Ramsey has been much more effective in coverage. Kotelnicki should find ways with motion and multi-tight end sets to keep Ramsey off Warren as much as possible.

USC’s best physical matchup for the 6-foot-6 261-pound Warren is 6-foot-6 215-pound linebacker Eric Gentry, who is expected to be out with a concussion. Ramsey is an effective coverage safety, but even if USC throws him at Warren, Allar should feed his oversized tight-end targets and give him multiple chances to use his size and physicality in space, and in one-on-one opportunities. 

Warren is the one player in Penn State’s passing game that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. He’s a matchup nightmare for any defense, but especially one that is undersized in the second level and without its best linebacker. Ramsey could give Warren issues, but not enough to take him out of the gameplan. The receiver roulette wheel should come up 44 again this week, and if I’m right about USC’s lack of answers for a 6-foot-6 monster, Allar, and the offense will be the big winners.