The AP Top 25 Preseason Poll released Monday, Aug. 11 and Penn State football is kicking the season off at No. 2 behind Texas. While controversies over how significant "on paper" projections should impact voters swarm, it might not be so bad for the Nittany Lions to start just beneath that No. 1 spot.
Starting 2016, two years into the College Football Playoff era, the preseason No. 2 team (Clemson) won the national championship. Then in 2018, the Tigers won it again after being poised as the second best team in the preseason again. Both times they knocked Alabama down from its No. 1 preseason spot and the Crimson Tide had to settle for second.
Fast forward to 2023 and 2024, both Big Ten national title winners, Michigan and Ohio State, won the CFP title. The Wolverines and Buckeyes started No. 2 before their respective seasons started. While they didn't beat Georgia in the championship, the Bulldogs were ranked first in the preseason both years.
In the BCS era of college football, five national champions started the season ranked No. 2 before Week 1's kickoffs (Miami; 2001, Texas; 2005, LSU; 2007, Alabama; 2011-12).
The No. 1 team in the CFP era finished second four times (Alabama; 2016, 2018, and 2021, Clemson; 2019). In the BCS era, three teams that started first finished at No. 2 (Miami; 2002, USC; 2005, Ohio State; 2006). LSU, a co-national champion with USC in 2003 technically finished second in the AP Top 25 Poll as well.
USC and Alabama are the only teams since 2000 that started No. 1 in the preseason and went on to win it all. The Trojans beat Oklahoma in 2004-05 in the BCS Championship Game and the Crimson Tide beat Georgia in 2017-18 in the CFP Championship Game.
So for the Longhorns, they'll have to get past the poor odds to retain that No. 1 preseason spot all the way to the end. For Penn State, though, it's more favored given recent history for it to give the Big Ten its third national championship win in a row.
On top of that, the Nittany Lions are returning 14 of their starters, which is tied for fourth-most in the country with Alabama, Pittsburgh, and Iowa State. This is a feat of future title winners, even if they didn't return the most starters. Unfortunately for Texas, it doesn't fit that trait as its tied for ninth-most this season with nine returning starters.