Week 13 was supposed to have all eyes on the Big Ten, with Ohio State and Indiana meeting in Columbus for a top-5 matchup, and Penn State in an all too predictable trap game at Minnesota. And while those games gave insightful results for the 12-team College Football Playoff, the SEC stole the show on a chaotic Saturday night.
The shake-up starts at the top. Texas has been my predicted No. 1 seed for weeks. While the Longhorns weren’t one of the SEC teams that took an additional loss, quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled in a 31-14 home win over Kentucky, throwing for just 191 yards on 20/31 passing with two touchdowns and a fumble that was returned the other way for a score. As the rest of the conference melted, the Longhorns have a win-and-in situation brewing next week in College Station against Texas A&M for the SEC title game. That will be a difficult game to win, but the other problem, Georgia will be waiting on the other side.
The Bulldogs didn’t have the easiest time dispatching UMass in Week 13, but with Ole Miss and Alabama both taking their third loss of the season, Kirby Smart’s Dawgs clinched a spot in the SEC Championship. Smart’s defense overwhelmed Ewers and Texas in Austin last month, so why would we expect anything different in Atlanta? If Georgia wins the SEC with two losses, that gives the winner of a likely rematch between Ohio State and Oregon the top seed in the playoff.
Here’s a look at my Week 13 CFP prediction.
Rank | Team | Bid | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 2 |
2 | Georgia | SEC Champion | 11 |
3 | Miami (FL) | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | Boise State | Mountain West Champion | 12 |
5 | Oregon | At-Large | 5 |
6 | Texas | At-Large | 1 |
7 | Penn State | At-Large | 6 |
8 | Notre Dame | At-Large | 8 |
9 | Tennessee | At-Large | N/A |
10 | SMU | At-Large | N/A |
11 | Indiana | At-Large | 10 |
12 | Arizona State | At-Large | N/A |
Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M all took their third loss of the year, so it’s not inconceivable that a three-loss SEC team gets into the CFP, but for now, those results have opened the door for two teams, SMU and Indiana.
The ACC is a two-bid league again with the Mustangs rolling through conference play and awaiting either Miami or Clemson in the ACC title game. If Miami beats Syracuse, which they’re expected to do, it will be the Canes and both teams will likely get a spot. The committee won’t be too interested in punishing teams for suffering an additional loss in the conference title game unless it’s too ugly to ignore because otherwise, teams won’t want to play in the yearly money-grab.
As for Indiana. The Hoosiers were likely to freefall from No. 5 to who knows where, but the SEC stopped that slide. Despite leading for the entire first quarter after an early 70-yard touchdown drive, Curt Cignetti’s team was never really a threat to knockoff the Buckeyes. 11-1 in the Big Ten, even with an uninspiring performance against your only high-level competition, should still claim a seat at the table. SMU and Indiana are likely in. Which is exactly what we all expected coming into the year.
Then, there’s the Big 12. Colorado had been my expected representative from that conference for a few weeks, but a loss to Kansas means Coach Prime no longer controls his team’s destiny. The Arizona State Sun Devils do. In a league that is all chaos, I’ll back the team that is most likely to make the conference title game and go from there. With Colorado and BYU losing, Boise State’s chances of getting a bye into the quarterfinals continue to grow. Remember, it’s the four highest-ranked conference champions, not the Power 4 conference champs.