Week 12 12-team College Football Playoff prediction

Oregon sidestepped disaster in Madison in Week 12, but the SEC had more chaos at the top with Georgia jumping right back into the CFP picture after a win over Tennessee in Athens on Saturday night.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8)
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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With a clear top four and a shocking lack of competitive teams behind that group, the Big Ten has avoided chaos all season, though it nearly clipped Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks. Lanning’s defense had to bail him out after a failed fake field goal up with his team up three on Wisconsin in the final minutes at Camp Randall Stadium. 

Matayo Uiagalelei sealed the win with an interception, so Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all remain in the 12-team College Football Playoff picture. The Nittany Lions rolled past Purdue 49-10 as James Franklin benched his starters early in the third quarter, and the Buckeyes and Hoosiers were both on a bye week before a huge showdown in Columbus for a spot in the Big Ten title game in Week 13. The chaos in college football was reserved for the SEC. 

Before this year, Kirby Smart hadn’t lost two games in a season since 2020, so he certainly wasn’t going to lose a third game in SEC play. Georgia bounced back after an ugly loss to Ole Miss in Oxford last week with a 31-17 win over Tennessee in Athens. Carson Beck played his best game of the season, throwing for two touchdowns and running in another with no turnovers, and Smart’s defense stifled Nico Iamaleava and the Vols passing attack. 

Even after falling out of the projected 12-team CFP bracket last week as the No. 12 team in the country, Georgia is a real national championship contender, especially if Beck continues to provide competent quarterback play. 

With Tennessee falling to 8-2 and 5-2 in SEC play, Texas leads the conference ahead of five teams with two losses, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss. Texas and Texas A&M are the only two teams with just one SEC loss, but that will change Thanksgiving weekend when they reignite their fierce rivalry in College Station. 

I’ve had the Vols in my CFP prediction for much of the season, but if I’m picking the four best SEC teams, Josh Heupel’s group no longer makes the cut. Iamaleava has real issues as a dropback passer and Tennessee’s loaded defensive line couldn’t affect Beck, just a week after Ole Miss dismantled Georgia’s offense. There’s still more chaos and tiebreakers to come, but at least four SEC teams will get in and for me, that’s Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia, in that order. 

Rank

Team

Bid

Previous Rank

1

Texas

SEC Champion

1

2

Ohio State

Big Ten Champion

2

3

Miami (FL)

ACC Champion

3

4

Colorado

Big 12 Champion

4

5

Oregon

At-Large

5

6

Penn State

At-Large

6

7

Alabama

At-Large

9

8

Notre Dame

At-Large

8

9

Ole Miss

At-Large

11

10

Indiana

At-Large

10

11

Georgia

At-Large

N/R

12

Boise State

Mountain West Champion

12

The SEC wasn’t the only conference with big changes at the top. Somebody had to knock off BYU, one of the most uninspiring undefeated teams in recent memory, and Kansas did the honors in Provo. That loss only emboldens my Colorado pick as the Big 12 champs. 

For the Group of Five spot, Boise State still feels like a lock, but if the Broncos slip up before or in the Mountain West title game, keep an eye out for Tulane, which secured at spot in the AAC Championship game opposite Army. Not to be unpatriotic, but I’m picking the Green Wave in that one.

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