Penn State’s 2024 season is in the review mirror and with Ohio State grabbing the crown with a 34-23 win over Notre Dame in Atlanta on Monday night, the same goes for the rest of college football. In his 11th year leading the Nittany Lions, James Franklin led the program to a 13-3 record, its first College Football Playoff appearance, two CFP wins including a Fiesta Bowl victory and all three of his losses were to the top three teams in the final AP poll of the season.
Yet, despite 2024 being the program’s first top-five AP poll finish since 2005, it wasn’t enough. Franklin needs to get over the hump and take away the twinge of irony in his nickname “Big Game James.” The good news is, in 2025, he should have the roster to do it.
While Penn State lost superstar Tyler Warren and Abdul Carter and is currently undergoing a search for a new defensive coordinator after Tom Allen left for Clemson this offseason, the Nittany Lions are loaded with veteran returners that Franklin kept out of the NFL draft and transfer portal. Drew Allar will lead a group of seniors that includes Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, and Zakee Wheatley, all back for their final season of eligibility.
Even with a DC change, the biggest turnover on the roster – no surprise – is at wide receiver. After the entire wide receiver room finished the Orange Bowl with as many catches as you or I (unless of course, you’re Tyler Warren reading this), both Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans departed the program and entered the transfer portal. Those losses put a ton of pressure on Franklin’s pre-playoff portal additions, Kyron Hudson and Devonte Ross, who will lead a young and revamped group.
Penn State has high expectations heading into 2025, and though it’s way too early, why don’t we try to predict the team’s record and the final score of all 12 regular season contests?
Penn State 2025 record prediction: 11-1
Week 1 vs. Nevada: 42-7 W
Frankly, the experiences of Indiana and SMU in 2024 proved that you can get to the 12-team playoff without facing any competition in non-conference play, and with loaded superconferences forcing Penn State to play Oregon, Ohio State, and/or Michigan every season, there isn’t much incentive to schedule an early season gauntlet. Penn State will roll in its home opener against a Nevada team coming off a 3-10 season.
Week 2: vs. FIU: 35-0 W
Mike MacIntyre went 4-8 in each of his three seasons at the helm for FIU and now the Panthers are looking to rebuild (or frankly build for the first time) their program under Willie Simmons. Needless to say, Week 2 won’t be much of a speedbump in Penn State’s season.
Week 3 vs. Villanova: 45-3 W
Facing an FCS team heading into a bye week before a matchup with Oregon could result in an unmotivated Penn State team sleepwalking through the game, and even if that’s the case, the Nittany Lions will pound the Wildcats because the talent gap is far too much to overcome.
Week 4: Bye
Week 5 vs. Oregon: 28-24 W
Penn State nearly knocked off Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, and if it weren’t for dominant performances from Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson they would have. Dan Lanning is the type of recruiter who can reload his roster at a moment’s notice, but heading into 2025, he’ll likely have inexperienced former five-star Dante Moore at quarterback and he won’t have Johnson to throw to. With Penn State returning so much of its veteran talent, I’d expect the Nittany Lions to have an edge, especially with this matchup happening so early in the season.
Week 6 at UCLA: 27-13 W
Considering the circumstances of Chip Kelly’s departure for Ohio State, Deshaun Foster put together a promising 5-7 season at UCLA. Then, he put together an exciting transfer portal class headlined by former Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar who has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. The Bruins might start to round the corner in the Big Ten, but not enough to knock off Penn State.
Week 7 vs. Northwestern: 30-6 W
The magic of David Braun’s 8-5 campaign in 2023 wore off last year, and it’ll be tough to recapture going forward at the program that just isn’t built to compete in the Big Ten.
Week 8 at Iowa: 20-18 W
Sneakily, after Cade McNamara was replaced, Iowa played some offense in 2024. The Hawkeyes were invigorated by the duel-threat ability of Brendan Sullivan, a former Northwestern QB, and this offseason Kirk Ferentz added former South Dakota State QB Mark Gronowski. Gronowski led the Jackrabbits for the FCS semifinals last season after winning the national championship in 2022 and 2023 and will be Iowa’s most exciting QB in years.
It’s never easy to win at Kinnick Stadium, but the Nittany Lions should pull it out. Behind matchups with Ohio State and Oregon, this is the toughest game on the schedule.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10 at Ohio State: 24-20 L
It’s James Franklin against Ohio State. As much as I may want to believe that Penn State will finally exercise those demons, regardless of who Ryan Day trots out at quarterback, they’ll be throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate while Drew Allar will have to hope that Luke Reynolds does a competent Tyler Warren impression and both Hudson and Ross pay off out of the portal. This is the only loss I see Penn State suffering in the regular season.
Week 11 vs. Indiana: 21-10 W
Indiana may enter the 2025 season ranked after Curt Cignetti dragged the Hoosiers to the 12-team CFP in 2024, but the two rosters will be hardly comparable. Kurtis Rourke is out of eligibility and while former Cal QB Fernando Mendoza is an intriguing piece, the Hoosiers are bound to take a big step back.
Week 12 at Michigan State: 24-20 W
It’s hard not to believe that Jonathan Smith will turn things around in East Lansing, but it will depend greatly on whether QB Aidan Chiles can take a step forward next season. Smith added some interesting weapons like former Middle Tennessee wide receiver Omari Kelly, this offseason, but the Spartans are likely still a year away from contention after going 5-7 last year.
Week 13 vs. Nebraska: 30-21 W
If Iowa isn’t the third best team on Penn State’s schedule, it’s Nebraska, and the Nittany Lions are lucky to get the Cornhuskers in Happy Valley. Despite speculation that he may flee for the portal, Dylan Raiola is back for his sophomore season and Matt Rhule is known for making the jump in his third year with a program.
- Year 3 at Temple: 10-4
- Year 3 at Baylor: 11-3
- Year 3 at Nebraska: ??
Week 14 at Rutgers: 38-17 W
If his team hadn’t been devastated by injuries midway through the year, Greg Schiano may have managed to win nine or even 10 games at Rutgers last season, but there’s still a significant gap between these two East Coast Big Ten programs.