Penn State should seriously consider an offseason coordinator change after Big Ten Championship loss

Last year, following the midseason firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurich and Manny Diaz’s departure to become the head coach at Duke, Penn State head coach James Franklin was forced to replace both of his coordinators. He hired Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas and gave former Indiana head coach Tom Allen a soft landing as his DC after he was fired in Bloomington. Now, after an 11-2 season and a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff, Franklin should consider making another change. 

West Virginia was interested in Penn State’s innovative offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki for its head coaching vacancy, but this week, Kotelnicki announced he was staying in Happy Valley for 2025, so Franklin won’t need to completely overhaul his staff again. However, in Penn State’s 45-37 Big Ten Championship Game loss to Oregon, there was overwhelming evidence that this program will need a new coach running the defense to reach its national championship ceiling. 

Allen still has a chance to change the narrative with the Nittany Lions hosting SMU in the first round of the 12-team CFP and a clear path to the semifinal with Boise State waiting to play the winner of that matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. Still, it will be hard to unsee how overmatched Allen was, even with one of the most talented defenses in the country, against offensive coordinator Will Stein, Dillon Gabriel, and the Ducks. 

In the Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon gained 469 yards, 6.61 yards per play, and produced the highest EPA/play against a Penn State defense since 2015 when the Nittany Lions lost 55-16 to Michigan State. For the season, Penn State is fifth in the total defense and has the statistical profile of one of the league’s elite units, but Stein was toying with Allen as Ohio State did, despite only scoring 20 points, and as any of the elite play-callers in the country would. 

Oregon’s most dynamic weapon on offense is Tez Johnson, their speedy, but very slight, slot receiver. Now, since Kevin Winston Jr. went down with an injury, which moved Jaylen Reed out of the slot cornerback position and back to safety, Allen has struggled to find the answer in nickel. 

Cam Miller has been a liability in coverage, allowing the most receptions on the team in the seventh most coverage snaps, and Zion Tracy hasn’t been much better. That duo ranks first and second on the team in snaps/reception allowed at 7.2 and 8.1 Miller has the seventh-worst snaps/rec in the Big Ten per PFF. Naturally, Johnson was going to be a mismatch for Penn State, but Stein made it much worse, routinely using Allen as a schematic punching bag. Johnson finished with 11 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. Three of those catches against Miller, three against Tracy, but he also had a catch against A.J. Harris and Jalen Kimber, Penn State’s two outside corners, Zakee Wheatley and Reed, both safeties, and even Abdul Carter. 

Stein had Johnson run many of his routes out of bunch sets, which he often motioned into, making it difficult for Penn State to adjust its assignments and pass off coverage responsibilities. However, Stein recognized an even bigger formational advantage early in the game and it paid off later. Allen matched Oregon’s 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) with nickel (five defensive backs). So, Stein split out his tight ends, either Kenyon Saddiq who caught two touchdowns, or Terrance Ferguson as the lone wide receiver, often to the short side of the field. That left a cornerback responsible and only two corners on the other side of the formation to account for Oregon’s three explosive receivers, Evan Stewart, Traeshaun Holden, and that’s right, Tez Johnson. 

This touchdown, while it was a bit of a broken play on an RPO, is a perfect example. AJ Harris is one-on-one with Saddiq on the far side of the field, leaving Zakee Wheatley, 14 yards off the line of scrimmage, as the defender responsible for Johnson. 

Stein had been exploiting this all game and it still worked deep into the third quarter with no adjustment from Allen. The first time he went to it was in the first quarter, which is the play that he got Johnson matched up on Carter. He may be the best defensive player in college football and a true athletic freak, but Carter has no business chasing Johnson in space. Stein cracked the code to this defense early, and Allen had no counterpunch. 

 Oregon started the game running the ball right at Carter, who is a bit undersized for the defensive line. It took him well into their second drive of the game, but Allen eventually moved Carter around so he wasn’t as easy to target, and Oregon’s effectiveness waned. Maybe, Allen simply didn’t have the personnel to make more significant changes on the back end of his defense, which could account for his 48.6% blitz rate against a quarterback who has thrown the third-most touchdown passes and has the ninth-highest completion percentage against the blitz this season, or maybe he’s overmatched against the most innovative offensive play-callers in the sport. Maybe both things are true, but if Allen’s unit doesn’t start playing up to its talent level in the CFP, maybe it’s time for Franklin to admit his mistake and move on.

The Big Ten doesn't exactly provide a gaunlet of opposing offenses to navigate. Only six of Penn State's 13 opponents finished in the top 50 of college football in EPA/play, Ohio State (No. 3), Oregon (No. 10), USC (No. 27), Illinois (No. 39), Washington (No. 42) and Bowling Green (No. 48). And in those five games, they allowed 22.6 points per game, up from 11.1 against all other competition. Playing in the Big Ten with teams like Wisconsin, Purdue, and Maryland on the schedule has buoyed Allen's unit, but it could get exposed in the CFP.

Franklin's biggest goal last offseason was to bring life to his stagnant offense and to jumpstart Drew Allar's career. Kotelnicki accomplished both of those goals, but because of a drop-off against elite competition with Allen replacing Diaz, the defense could let Kotelnicki's group down and cost Franklin a national championship.