Penn State's easy path to CFP semifinal ups the pressure on James Franklin to deliver

On Sunday afternoon, the College Football Playoff committee made a clear statement with the reveal of the inaugural 12-team CFP bracket. The 12-team format will not punish teams that lose in their conference championship games. Texas and Penn State, losers of the SEC and Big Ten title games on Saturday, grabbed the No. 5 and 6 seeds, and SMU, which lost to Clemson in the ACC title game on a last-second field goal, was slotted in at No. 11, heading to Happy Valley for a first-round game at Beaver Stadium. 

If the committee had dropped SMU out of the 12-team bracket because of a loss to Clemson, when it was previously in or dropped Penn State behind Ohio State when it was previously ahead of the Buckeyes, it would have set a dangerous precedent. Teams would have to consider opting out of their conference championship games in the future, which would lead to leagues canceling the games and losing out on the bag of money that comes with it. That fear is the biggest reason that Penn State, which finished 11-2 after a 45-37 loss to No. 1 Oregon in Indianapolis on Saturday night, has the easiest path to the semifinal of any team playing in the first round. 

 With this format, the No. 5 seed was set up to be the most advantageous, likely a matchup with the highest-ranked Group of Five champion at home in the first round and a neutral site game against the weakest of the Power 4 winners in the quarterfinals. However, with Clemson upsetting SMU for the ACC title and pushing Alabama out of the bracket altogether, Boise State, the Moutain West Champion slid to No. 3 with a first-round bye, and Arizona State, the surprise winner of the Big 12, grabbed the final first-round bye. Now, Texas with the No. 5 seed, has to play Dabo Swinney’s Tigers in Round 1 and a red-hot Sun Devils team in Round 2, while Penn State gets the good fortune of facing SMU as a significant home favorite on December 21 at Noon ET and then a neutral site game against Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl on December 31 at 7:30 p.m ET. 

To be clear, that’s not an easy path to the CFP semifinal, a place that has eluded James Franklin across his 11-year tenure at Penn State, but it’s arguably the easiest path possible for a team that was not awarded a first-round bye. The Nittany Lions are fortunate, with only one top-25 win and a head-to-head loss to Ohio State, that the committee was so afraid to punish conference championship losers because it kept them ahead of the Buckeyes, who will host Tennessee as the No. 8 seed for the chance to play Oregon in the Rose Bowl. 

Now, with this path laid out in front of him, the pressure is on James Franklin to finally win big on a big stage. While it was an impressive showing from the team and its quarterback, Saturday night’s loss to Oregon was Franklin’s 14th in 15 tries against top-5 ranked opponents. He’s routinely failed to get over the hump and the cruel irony is that if the four-team playoff was still around, the Nittany Lions, as the No. 4 overall team in the rankings, would have finally gotten a bid despite its two losses. 

Franklin has to drag Penn State past the Mustangs and the Broncos, or this season which has had so much promise, is another failure.