Penn State football game-by-game predictions for 2024: James Franklin’s CFP run

James Franklin never got the Nittany Lions to the four-team College Football Playoff, so now in his 11th year at the helm in Happy Valley, the pressure is on to get Penn State into the 12-team CFP. 

Not only are there more playoff spots, but with the Big Ten’s expansion, the conference rid itself of divisions, so this year Franklin even had the good fortune of avoiding Michigan, and Oregon, the best of the newcomers. Winning 10 or 11 games has never gotten the job done before, but this regular season, if Penn State can run back last year’s performance, it’ll get a chance to play for a national championship in December and January. 

Prediction: Win

Last season, West Virginia head coach Neal Brown was on the hot seat and a 38-15 loss to Penn State in Week 1 didn’t help his cause. However, Brown turned things around, led WVU to nine wins, and now his program comes into 2024 with real momentum.  

Morgantown won’t be an easy place to play, but Penn State has a decidedly better roster and that will win out in the end. The Mountaineers keep it closer than last season with a strong performance from Garrett Greene and an effective run game, but Abdul Carter will make enough big plays for the Penn State defense to hold on for a 10-point win. 

Prediction: Win

Under James Franklin, Penn State has always dominated inferior opponents. Bowling Green does have a unique offensive weapon in Harold Fannin Jr. who could test Penn State’s young group of linebackers, but ultimately safety Jaylen Reed should be able to shut him down and allow the Nittany Lions to pull away. 

After an average offensive performance in Week 1, Penn State’s unique running game under Andy Kotelnicki will impress against MAC competition and will show real promise with a big game from Nick Singleton. 

Week 3: Bye

Prediction: Win

Coming out of a bye week, Penn State could start a bit slow against Kent State, especially with the Big Ten slate looming in Week 5 and beyond. Ultimately, Drew Allar will break the Nittany Lions out of the fog after a shaky first quarter, but it will be the running game that leads the way in Week 4 as well. 

Kent State was 50th in passing defense last season but was 108th against the run, so once again the Lawn Boyz can carry Penn State to a big win. 

Prediction: Win

Luke Altmyer provided Illinois with some real excitement last season, but that was later in the year. In Penn State’s third game of 2023, Altmyer threw four interceptions in a 30-13 win, but the game was much closer than that. Penn State took a while to pull away from the Illini and with another year of experience under his belt, I expect Altmyer to hang around through three quarters. 

Ultimately, Penn State is better in the trenches and will start to force negative plays on defense and open up big holes on offense. When Illinois was at its best a few years ago, the Illini were built to play great defense, but that version is gone, so Drew Allar should have an impressive showing. 

Prediction: Win

Chip Kelly was wise to move on from UCLA to take the OC job at Ohio State. Now, DeShaun Foster has an uphill climb to build the Bruins into a contender, especially after losing former five-star quarterback Dante Moore to Oregon this offseason. 

UCLA’s defense also lost a ton of talent, especially along the defensive line with Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy. Penn State will win comfortably before heading out west to meet the Bruins’ biggest rival. 

Prediction: Win

Lincoln Riley fired his longtime defensive coordinator Alex Grinch this offseason in a long overdue move, but USC’s defense still won’t be Big Ten caliber. However, Riley is a master of quarterback development and by Week 7, Miller Moss might be playing like a Heisman Trophy candidate. 

Penn State’s defense may not travel well against Riley’s offense and Moss, but Drew Allar will have the best game of his career and carry the Nittany Lions to a shootout win. Penn State can’t match USC’s weapons at wide receiver, so Allar will have to elevate his game to keep pace. 

Week 8: Bye

Prediction: Win

Coming out of the second bye week with a trip to Madison isn’t going to be pleasant for Penn State, especially with Ohio State in town the very next week. Last season at Miami, new Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke struggled when facing pressure, so Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will disrupt him enough to derail the Badger’s offense, but Luke Fickell’s team will be much improved on the defensive side of the ball and will keep it close. 

Heading into the Ohio State game with an undefeated record would be the dream scenario because a loss wouldn’t knock the Nittany Lions from the CFP conversation, but if there is going to be a loss on the schedule in the first nine weeks, I’d expect it to come in Week 9. 

Prediction: Loss

Yes, 20-12 is the exact same score as last season’s Ohio State-Penn State matchup because, for as much as has changed on both rosters and coaching staffs, more has stayed the same. James Franklin’s roster just simply doesn’t have enough talent to compete with Ohio State, which returned almost its entire defense after rattling Allar last season and added All-American safety Caleb Downs. 

Prediction: Win

Penn State selected Washington for the White Out because it’s more likely to be a primetime game than the Ohio State game which could be on Fox Big Noon Kickoff. However, Penn State has also had a recent tendency to make a bit of a safer pick for the White Out, and honestly, this game is a safe one. 

Washington was excellent last year, but the team was gutted, not just by Kalen DeBoer leaving for Alabama, but mostly by their best players leaving for the NFL. Washington lost its leading passer, rushing, and top five leading receivers off one of the country’s best offenses.

Jedd Fisch is a great coach and Will Rogers is a solid quarterback, but there just isn’t enough talent left in Seattle from last year’s run to the national title game. 

Prediction: Win

Purdue’s 38-year-old head coach Ryan Walters might eventually turn the Boilermakers around, but he’s still a long way off in Year 2. Penn State’s last meeting with Purdue was a 35-31 thriller in West Lafayette back in 2022, but that was with Jeff Brohm at the helm and a whole lot more talent on that roster. 

Hudson Card is an exciting veteran quarterback, but Deion Burks, his best weapon from last season left for Oklahoma in the transfer portal. Purdue will have an exceedingly difficult time moving the ball against Penn State’s defense and multiple turnovers from a frustrated Card will set up the Nittany Lions offense for a big outing. 

Prediction: Win

Minnesota struggled in 2023, but the Golden Gophers upgraded at quarterback with former New Hampshire quarterback Max Brosmer who was prolific in the FCS. Brosmer will need to prove himself in the Big Ten, but if he lives up to PJ Fleck’s high expectations, then Fleck’s offense will be rowing downstream in 2024. 

However, Minnesota was forced to replace its defensive coordinator this offseason after Joe Rossi left for the same job at Michigan State, and Corey Heaterman will struggle to slow down Kotelnicki’s versatile attack. 

Prediction: Win

It’s James Franklin against Maryland, need I say more?

Final record: 11-1