2024 Week 4 12-team College Football Playoff prediction
By Josh Yourish
Since a Week 1 win over LSU, USC has been a big piece of 12-team College Football Playoff discussions, and after a Week 2 loss to Texas at home, Sherrone Moore’s Michigan Wolverines have been an afterthought. That flipped on Saturday when Lincoln Riley’s Trojans fell 27-24 at the Big House despite Michigan quarterback Alex Orji completing just seven of his 12 passes for 32 yards.
It was USC’s true welcome to the Big Ten moment and with a 63-yard run from Kalel Mullings on Michigan’s final drive of the game to set up the game-winning touchdown, it was also a rude awakening that the team from LA might not be ready for the physicality of the league.
USC’s path back into the mix includes beating Penn State in Week 7, but that won’t be easy. In Week 4 Penn State put up the best offensive performance in program history against Kent State and moved back up one spot in the AP poll from No. 10 to No. 9. That Week 7 matchup is one I expect to go the Nittany Lions way.
For the first time in my weekly 12-team CFP predictions, I have only three Big Ten teams in the mix. Michigan could have replaced USC, but there are still real concerns about the Orji-led offense and I have my eyes on a perennial ACC power instead.
Rank | Team | Bid | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Georgia | SEC Champion | 1 |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 2 |
3 | Miami (FL) | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | Utah | Big 12 Champion | NR |
5 | Texas | At-Large | 5 |
6 | Tennessee | At-Large | 10 |
7 | Oregon | At-Large | 7 |
8 | Notre Dame | At-Large | 8 |
9 | Penn State | At-Large | 9 |
10 | Ole Miss | At-Large | 6 |
11 | Clemson | At-Large | N/R |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champion | N/R |
The Tigers are at No. 17 in the AP poll, but after a 59-35 blowout of NC State in Week 4, Clemson is joining the party for the first time. Dabo Swinney’s team got manhandled by Georgia in Week 1 and while I don’t expect the Tigers to compete with the best teams from the SEC anytime soon, especially not with Swinney’s reluctance to add talent through the transfer portal, I do expect Cade Klubnik and this suddenly high-powered offense to smash through its ACC schedule.
Louisville is the only ranked opponent remaining on Clemson’s schedule, and if the one-loss Tigers meet the undefeated or one-loss Miami Hurricanes in the ACC Championship game, a close game gets both teams into the 12-team CFP.
There's also some movement in the Big 12, likely a one-bid league. Utah knocked off Oklahoma State in Stillwater with Zach Wilson's little brother Isaac at quarterback. That win wouldn't have been enough for me to get off my take that Kansas State was winning the Big 12, but the Wildcat's 38-9 loss to BYU was. Kyle Whittingham is the best coach in the Big 12 and probably a top 5 coach in the country, so I'm not sure why I ever doubted his Utes.
For the first time this season, I have to move Memphis out of the No. 12 spot. After beating Florida State in Week 3, the Tigers allowed 361 yards on the ground and fell to Navy 56-44. Boise State is 2-1 with a close loss to Oregon and just climbed into the AP top 25 this week.
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