Penn State and Washington both pulled out massive wins in Week 9 before their head-to-head matchup at Husky Stadium in Week 10.
The Nittany Lions downed Purdue 31-17, and simply getting on the board with the first conference win of the Matt Campbell era has, at least momentarily, quelled some of the simmering frustrations throughout the fan base. The Huskies, similarly downtrodden and eliminated from even fringe College Football Playoff discussions, stole a closely contested game from Nebraska with some fourth-quarter heroics in a 17-10 win.
Both of these programs came into the year on that fringe of the CFP conversation, ranked back-to-back at No. 17 and 18 in the preseason AP Poll. With the Huskies at 5-3 (3-2) and the Nittany Lions at 4-4 (1-4), CFP dreams have long since faded away.
And while nationally, that makes this game significantly less consequential, it matters a great deal for these key members of these programs: Matt Campbell, who is desperately trying to rid Happy Valley of the lingering odor of a 0-4 start to his tenure in Big Ten play, and Washington quarterback Demond Williams, who, 10 months ago, was the apple of Lane Kiffin’s eye and is now fighting to keep his starting job after ceding it to backup Elijah Brown through equal parts injury and performance.
Not only that, but the oddsmakers in Vegas are expecting a close game, essentially declaring these teams as equals on a neutral field by making Washington a 2.5-point home favorite (the typical value given to home field advantage in a betting line).
Penn State vs. Washington odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State +110
- Washington -132
Spread
- Penn State +2.5 (-110)
- Washington -2.5 (-110)
Total
- 44.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The big question is how real Penn State’s run game improvement is
The story of Penn State’s win over Purdue is how the offense, particularly previous fourth-string running back Cam Wallace, ran the crap out of the football. It was a dominant performance, not just with over 250 rushing yards and over 5.0 yards per attempt, but with over 43 minutes of possession time. Penn State dictated the terms of the football game for the first time against a Power Conference opponent.
Can they do it again? Maybe not against Washington. The Huskies have a stout defensive front, with a 96th-percentile stuff rate and 91st-percentile opponent EPA/rush. It’s a terrifying combination of snuffing out early-down runs to set up obvious passing-down situations and reliable tackling to limit explosives on the ground.
So while scheme changes from offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser will absolutely help Penn State run the ball better than it had before the bye week, they’re just simply not going to push around Washington’s front the way they did Purdue’s. So, then come the questions about Rocco Becht and the offense.
Honestly, maybe he comes back, but it’s hard to count on Koby Howard right now, so let’s assume Penn State plays without him but does get Chase Sowell on the field. The Washington defense is more gettable through the air, so I’d actually be willing to say Becht makes enough plays to win this one on the road.
The key to that will be the defense ensuring Becht only has to make a few plays. Washington can’t run the ball and can’t protect the quarterback. It ranks No. 121 in rushing success rate, No. 123 in average third-down distance, and has a 21st-percentile late-down success rate.
The Huskies get behind the chains constantly and ask their quarterback to bail them out. On occasion, Williams has, but against the Penn State secondary, that won’t be easy. Both QBs are flawed and turnover-prone, but Becht will probably exist in a healthy and more supportive ecosystem on Saturday. If that’s true, Penn State is good enough to win, even on the road in a hostile environment.
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