Week 9 of the 2026 college football season is here, and Matt Campbell is still looking for his first win over a power conference opponent as the head coach of Penn State. Will it come with Purdue heading to town for a 4:15 p.m. ET kickoff at Beaver Stadium? The sportsbooks seem to think so.
Penn State, despite its 3-4 record and 0-4 record in Big Ten play, is a significant favorite over a Purdue team that has two Big Ten wins to its name, including a 41-13 beatdown of Minnesota at the beginning of the month.
Maybe that’s for good reason, but the last time Penn State was about a 10-point home favorite this season, it lost to Wisconsin outright, so it remains to be seen. Campbell needs to spark a bit of positivity in the fanbase, and even against Purdue, a convincing win could do it. We’ll find out if that’s what he has in store.
Purdue vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Purdue +330
- Penn State -430
Spread
- Purdue +11.5 (-115)
- Penn State -11.5 (-105)
Total
- 54.5 (over -115/under -105)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Believe it or not, Rocco Becht and Ryan Browne may start trading scores
Penn State’s offense has not been especially effective this season. It ranks No. 54 in points per drive and No. 70 in success rate. Granted, much of that production, or lack thereof, has come without star wide receiver Koby Howard, who could potentially see the field for the first time since Week 3 on Saturday.
However, there is also a possibility that Chase Sowell, who has replaced Howard as Rocco Becht’s No. 1 target in the interim, is out, as both are listed as questionable. The line movement in this case, ballooning in Penn State's direction late in the week, appears to indicate that both are likely to play.
Regardless, Penn State should probably be able to score on the Boilermakers, who rank No. 125 in points per drive allowed and No. 123 in defensive success rate. Purdue held Illinois and Minnesota down, so maybe this game won’t turn into a shootout, but even Washington, with all its offensive line problems and its preseason QB2 starting, put up 38 points in Week 7, Purdue’s last time out.
The thing is, Penn State will probably need to score because, while D’Anton Lynn’s defense has been better, as of late, it’s not built to defend a spread, RPO-heavy attack like Purdue runs with veteran quarterback Ryan Browne.
The most similar offense Penn State has faced was USC, and the Trojans put up 31 points and averaged 6.8 yards per play. Does Purdue have USC’s talent? No. But structurally, a Penn State defense with slow-footed MIKE linebackers, an impotent four-man rush, and questionable tacklers in the secondary is not equipped to play in this much space.
If either team is going to get a stop or two, I’ll bank on Penn State because of the playmakers it has at cornerback: Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson, and Josiah Zayas. But it’s not a sure thing. Whether this team should be favored by two scores against any Big Ten opponent is a real question.
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