It took 11 years and a roundabout path through the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, but James Franklin had finally led Penn State to the CFP semifinals. After years on the outside looking in, the Nittany Lions are two wins away from the program’s first national championship since 1985.
It took a 38-10 first-round victory over SMU at Beaver Stadium and a 31-14 win over Boise State in the quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl for the sixth-seeded Nittany Lions to reach an Orange Bowl matchup with No. 7 Notre Dame. On their path to the semifinal, the Fighting Irish knocked off Indiana and Georgia.
Surprisingly this will be the first big test for Penn State in the CFP. The Nittany Lions were double-digit favorites against the Mustangs and the Broncos, but are slight underdogs in Miami on Thursday night. Here’s a look at where the odds have settled a day out from the Orange Bowl between Penn State and Notre Dame.
Check out a full breakdown of the College Football Playoff semifinal on FanSided's Stacking the Box podcast.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Notre Dame -120
- Penn State +100
Spread
- Notre Dame -1.5 (-108)
- Penn State +1.5 (-112)
Total
- 45.5 (over -102/under -120)
Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction
Offensively, both Notre Dame and Penn State have similar weaknesses, but for different reasons. Though Penn State has generated explosives as well as any team in the country, neither team has a reliable passing game, the Nittany Lions because of a lack of talent at wide receiver and the Irish due to quarterback Riley Leonard’s limitations. Despite their similarities and reliance on the run game on that side of the ball, these two defenses are very different.
Even without star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is out for the season with a hip injury, Notre Dame has an elite secondary. Last season’s Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner Xavier Watts is a dominant force on the back end of defensive coordinator Al Golden’s unit and could be an obvious answer for the Tyler Warren problem. Still, Penn State may not need to throw the ball.
The Nittany Lions have an efficient rushing attack behind the backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, which ranks fifth in the country in success rate. Defensively, the Irish rank 90th in rushing success rate.
Notre Dame has put a cap on explosive runs, only allowing one on 5.8% of their opponent’s carries, but the Nittany Lions should be able to stay ahead of the sticks with Singleton and Allen, enabling Drew Allar to take a few shots downfield.
Penn State’s defensive weakness is in the secondary, but the Irish aren’t equipped to expose it. Against the run, the Nittany Lions are elite, a week after bottling up Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty they rank sixth nationally in defensive expected points added (EPA)/rush. The Nittany Lions are built to stop the run, even Notre Dame's vaunted ground game, and if they pull out an Orange Bowl victory, that’ll be the biggest reason why.
The thing that could spoil the fun for the Nittany Lions is an injury to defensive end Abdul Carter. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year left Penn State's Fiesta Bowl win the second quarter, but is expected to play on Thursday night.
I’m taking the Nittany Lions in a low-scoring affair: 24-17