The matchup is finally set. No. 6 Penn State had to wait two days after beating Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal to learn its Orange Bowl CFP semifinal opponent following the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal postponement, but now James Franklin and his staff can begin to prepare for the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Head coach Marcus Freeman’s team bested Kirby Smart and No. 2 Georgia in New Orleans on Thursday evening 23-10 to advance to the program’s first CFP semifinal since a Rose Bowl loss to Alabama on January 1, 2021, under his predecessor Brian Kelly. The 13-1 Irish opened as a 1.5-point favorite over the 13-2 Nittany Lions in the betting market. But with a similarly run-heavy offense to Boise State, in some ways, they’re a familiar foe for Franklin and his defensive coordinator Tom Allen.
When Freeman and Notre Dame landed transfer quarterback Riley Leonard out of the portal, they expected to find a polished passer who was limited by injuries and circumstances at Duke, instead they quickly discovered his limitations. Leonard struggles mightily when under pressure, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt and completing just over 40% of his throws, but luckily for offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who coached Jayden Daniels to a Heisman Trophy at LSU in 2023, Leonard is a capable scrambler and surprisingly effective in the designed run game at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds.
So, instead of a nuanced passing attack, Denbrock built a dynamite run game around Leonard’s legs and his physical running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, and it’s one of the most efficient in the country. While Notre Dame’s backfield doesn’t feature the Heisman Trophy runner-up, who Penn State held to 104 yards on 30 carries in the Fiesta Bowl, it’s been just as difficult to stop.
Jeanty doesn’t just lead the country on rushing, he’s also first in yards after contact per carry at 5.25. No. 2 on that list is Price at 4.69, and No. 3 is Love at 4.59. As a duo, they’re nearly as effective as Jeanty and against a better lineup of opposing run defenses, but Leonard is the reason that Notre Dame’s run game could be an even tougher test.
Rushing Offense | Notre Dame | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
Rushing yards/game | 217.6 (12th) | 232.5 (6th) |
Yards/carry | 6.71 (2nd) | 6.61 (3rd) |
EPA/carry | 0.20 (9th) | 0.23 (3rd) |
Rushing success rate | 44.3% (33rd) | 45.4% (20th) |
Explosive rush % | 10.5% | 8.6% |
The Notre Dame QB has run for 751 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 56 first downs on his 141 attempts. He’s seventh in the country in EPA/carry, is averaging nearly seven yards per rush, and 50.3% of his runs have ended in either a first down or a touchdown, a staggeringly high mark at the volume.
While Penn State could load the box to stop Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl, in this matchup, one of those defenders around the line of scrimmage will need to account for the quarterback, or he’ll have another impactful day on the ground. Against Georgia, Leonard failed to crack 100 yards through the air, but he had 14 carries for 80 yards and seven first downs.
Penn State did an excellent job limiting Jeanty, even when he was able to break the initial tackle, the Nittany Lions rallied to the ball well and eventually brought him down. That’s key against physical runners like Love and Price, but if they overpursue, Leonard will keep it and take out the back door. But, same as last week, if Penn State can stop the run, it will have a great shot to advance, and stopping the run is the strength of Allen’s defense.