The feeling around the Penn State program evolved from patience to pressure in one half of football, as the Nittany Lions blew a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin to fall 24-20 in Week 4. Matt Campbell is now 0-1 in Big Ten play, and despite the overall schedule still looking favorable for the Nittany Lions, a Week 5 trip to Northwestern is not the soft landing that this team needs.
The Wildcats gave Indiana an upset scare in Week 4, playing on Friday night. So, they have a rest advantage and what looks to be a pretty good team, led by resurgent quarterback Aidan Chiles. Penn State is still favored on the road, but this is by no means a foregone conclusion.
Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State -142
- Northwestern +118
Spread
- Penn State -2.5 (-122)
- Northwestern +2.5 (+100)
Total
- 45.5 (over -115/under -105)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
It may come down to red zone execution, and that’s a problem for Penn State
Chip Kelly broke out a lot of tricks against Indiana in Week 4, building on triple-option and Wing T looks to open up the play-action pass downfield for Aidan Chiles with a well-sequenced game plan. He won’t have the drop on Penn State and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn the way he did on Indiana and Bryant Haines, but he’s still Chip Kelly, so he’ll probably have more up his sleeve.
Northwestern will likely be without tight end Luke Dehnicke, who is listed as doubtful after a seven-catch, 140-yard performance against Indiana. So, that could cap the ceiling on this passing game.
Still, Chiles has been much better, as Northwestern’s passing attack ranks No. 2 in the country in success rate, and Penn State’s lack of pass rush could mean Chiles avoids the back-breaking negative plays he’s been prone to throughout his entire collegiate career. If Northwestern gets the best of Chiles without the worst of Chiles, it’ll be hard for Rocco Becht and the Penn State offense to keep up.
As for that Penn State offense, the Nittany Lions are No. 28 in the country by available yards percentage. Even against Wisconsin, there were stretches when the offense moved the ball well between the 20s. Though clearly not enough of them.
However, when Rocco Becht gets into the red zone, the offense tends to come to a screeching halt. Penn State ranks No. 114 in the FBS in touchdown rate in the red zone. That’s disastrously bad when you consider that the Nittany Lions have played three of their four games against teams that rank 96th or worse by Bill Connelly’s SP+.
On the other side, Northwestern is one of the ultimate bend-don’t-break defenses in the country. Sometimes that means you’re not that good, but have gotten lucky playing red zone roulette. Maybe that’s the case, but it’s clearly a philosophy, as head coach David Braun has his defense living in a two-high shell to cap explosive plays through the air and ranking No. 6 in the country in opponent red zone touchdown percentage at 30.8%.
That’s probably going to regress at some point; it’s a pretty unsustainable number. Only four defenses were under 40% opponent touchdown rate in the red zone last season, and none were under 40% in 2024. But it’s unlikely to regress against one of the worst red zone offenses in the Power 4, which still doesn’t have its No. 1 wide receiver.
So much about this screams upset. Not to mention that it's Northwestern’s first game in its new stadium, so the energy will be at a level rarely seen in Evanston, Illinois. I think Penn State kicks a lot of field goals, Chip Kelly finds a way to scheme up a few touchdown drives, and the Nittany Lions lose outright and start 0-2 in Big Ten play for the second straight year.
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