It took a while, but Penn State seemingly has its footing under Matt Campbell and has a clear path to 8-4 after surviving a trip to Seattle and escaping with a 28-25 win.
Two weeks ago, with Purdue in town, the newfound run game felt like a revelation, and against Washington, a far superior run defense to the Boilermakers, Penn State proved it was replicable. Now, with some sense of stability and a long-awaited offensive identity, the Nittany Lions are poised to host 5-4 Minnesota on Saturday night.
The Golden Gophers aren’t riding quite as high, coming off back-to-back losses, falling to Indiana 23-16 in overtime in Week 9 and UCLA 34-20 in Week 10. Penn State certainly isn’t on the level of the Hoosiers or the Bruins this season, but Vegas doesn’t think Minnesota is on its level right now either, staking the Nittany Lions as two-score home favorites in Week 11.
Minnesota vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Minnesota +280
- Penn State -360
Spread
- Minnesota +9.5 (-110)
- Penn State -9.5 (-110)
Total
- 41.5 (over -120/under +100)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Minnesota will have a tough time winning on thin margins vs. Penn State
Strangely, for a team that is 5-4 and has rivalry wins over Michigan and Iowa for the first time in a little while, there’s not too much about this edition of PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers that is particularly frightening. The defensive line is big and stout, which allows them to collapse the pocket, which will be an issue for an undersized QB like Rocco Becht, and helps them stop the run with light boxes.
To that end, Minnesota ranks No. 48 in defensive success rate with similar splits to Penn State, being largely permissive against the run and locking down against the pass. The issue with that approach against Penn State right now is that the Nittany Lions are running the air out of the ball lately with a downhill, double-team-heavy approach, and Carson Hansen finally looks like the battering ram he was billed as.
Maybe the Gophers can bait Becht into a few mistakes (they certainly wouldn’t be the first), but it’s going to be tough to win on the thin margins where this team likes to exist against Penn State. That’s not to say Penn State has been especially well-coached this year. Campbell’s group nearly collapsed in the second half only a week ago. But it is to say that Minnesota ranks No. 12 in the country in net field position at +5.5 yards, and Penn State is right behind them at No. 13 (+5.4 yards).
Minnesota wants to force turnovers and kill drives with havoc plays. Offensively, they’re happy to play the field position game and capitalize on short fields when they get them. With Penn State running the ball as well as it has been, though, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for Minnesota to dictate the terms and manage field position in that way.
A 9.5-point line feels like a lot for a Penn State team that didn’t have a Big Ten win until two weeks ago. But these offenses aren’t close to comparable, so as long as Becht can avoid a few landmines, Penn State should win fairly comfortably.
Weather, though, could be an unforeseen factor, with a potential for some wind in Happy Valley.
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