Maybe the biggest flaw of Year 1 of the 12-team College Football Playoff is that the top four seeds and first-round byes went to the four highest-ranked conference champions. That idea sounds great in theory, especially with four remaining Power conferences following the death of the Pac-12, but what if there aren’t very many good conference champions?
Well, we learned what happens if there aren’t very many good conference champions. Lesser teams get rewarded. That doesn’t just mean Boise State and Arizona State, which grabbed the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds respectively as the Mountain West and Big 12 champs, the reward gets extended to the lesser Power 4 teams like Penn State and Texas. The Nittany Lions and Longhorns both lost their conference championship games, yet because of that, they drew the Broncos and Sun Devils in the CFP quarterfinal.
Both Penn State and Texas are double-digit favorites while Big Ten Champion and No. 1 overall seed Oregon has to play a rematch with Ohio State as a 2.5-point underdog and SEC Champ and No. 2 overall seed Georgia is a narrow favorite over Notre Dame.
Despite losing to both Ohio State and Oregon this season, Penn State may have the most favorable path to the CFP semifinals of any team in the country, but that good luck is all for naught if James Franklin’s group can’t get past Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Boise State vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Penn State -450
- Boise State +340
Spread
- Penn State -11.5 (-108)
- Boise State +11.5 (-112)
Total
- 53.5 (over -110/under -110)
Boise State vs. Penn State prediction
To say that Ashton Jeanty is the only reason that Boise State is the No. 3 seed in the CFP would be insulting to the impressive season that quarterback Maddux Madsen has had since winning the job over former five-star Malachi Nelson and it would be unfair to the Bronco’s dominant defensive that is No. 2 in the country in sacks per game, but it would also very likely be true. Without Jeanty, Boise State would be a good G5 team, with him, their the best one, and lucky for Penn State, defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s defense is built to take him away.
On his path to nearly 2,500 rushing yards this season, Jeanty has faced a very favorable group of opposing run defenses. The best unit by EPA/rush was San Jose State which finished 30th, seven of his opposing defenses finished outside the top 100 in the country in EPA/rush, an eighth (Wyoming) finished 97th, and a ninth was FCS Portland State. Penn State is sixth in EPA/rush and finished in the top 10 by opposing rushing yards per game.
That’s not to say that Penn State will completely shut down Jeanty, he’s a good enough player that I’m not sure any college defense can, but it is to say he’ll likely have the least efficient performance of the year, and that, unlike every other defense, the Nittany Lions won’t need to allocate an obscene amount of resources to slow him down. Madsen and the passing game are at their best of play-action against loaded boxes, and against better competition, he’ll see fewer of those.
Defensively, Boise State’s defense does pose some legitimate problems for Penn State. Though he’s played well, right tackle Nolan Rucci is still a backup and the Penn State offensive line is not an elite pass-protecting unit. The good news for Franklin and OC Andy Kotelnicki is that Drew Allar is playing like an elite quarterback.
Among quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks this season, Allar is 14th in yards per attempt at 7.2, 24th in completion percentage, 13th in pressure-to-sack ratio, and No. 1 in PFF’s “big-time throw rate” at 9.9% with zero “turnover-worthy plays.” Translation: When Allar is under pressure, he doesn’t take sacks, doesn’t turn the ball over, and makes accurate deep and tight-window throws.
Sure they nearly upset Oregon back in September, but this is a step up in weight class for Boise State and they aren’t ready for it. The favorites dominated the first round of the CFP, and I expect more of the same.
Prediction: Penn State 31 Boise State 13