When the format for the new 12-team College Football Playoff was introduced, it was assumed that the four-highest-ranked conference champions, which would earn the top four seeds and a first-round bye, would come from the Power 4 conferences. However, Boise State, the highest-ranked Group of Five champion out of the Mountain West earned the No. 3 seed and Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty is the biggest reason why.
Boise State is 12-1 with its lone loss coming by a field goal to Oregon in Eugene. Jeanty is not just the most productive running back in the country by raw numbers, he’s also one of the most efficient. He’s 14th in the country by yards per rush and 21st by expected points added (EPA)/rush.
The junior running back had a legendary season, racking up 2,497 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns to lead the Broncos to 12-1. Heading into a quarterfinal College Football Playoff matchup with Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, he’s within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing yards record of 2,628, but if those 131 yards do come, they won’t come easy.
The No. 6 Nittany Lions are big favorites in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve, and defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s unit is a big reason why. Allen’s group has been torched by a few of the best offenses it has faced, allowing 45 points to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game is the best example. However, the Nittany Lions forced three turnovers against SMU in the first round of the CFP and have been an elite run defense all season.
Penn State is ninth in the country in rushing defense, allowing just over 100 yards per game, but is even better by most efficiency metrics. The Nittany Lions allow a 37.2% success rate on the ground, which is 29th best in the country, but are sixth in total expected points added (EPA) against the run, seventh in EPA/game, and sixth in EPA/rush. Only Indiana, Oklahoma, SMU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are better by EPA/rush, and Jeanty hasn’t seen those defenses, so this will be the biggest test he’s faced, but by how much?
Well, Jeanty did run for 192 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 loss to Oregon, the No. 1 team in the country, earlier this year, but the Ducks are surprisingly susceptible on the ground. Oregon is 110th in the country in EPA/rush and allowing 5.23 yards per carry compared to Penn State’s 3.1.
Two of Jeanty’s least efficient performances came against San Jose State and UNLV, the only two defenses he has faced that finished in the top 80 nationally by EPA/rush.
Boise State opposing defenses in 2024 | EPA/rush (rank) | Ashton Jeanty rushing yards |
|---|---|---|
Georgia Southern 56-45 W | 0.10 (111th) | 267 |
Oregon 37-34 L | 0.10 (110th) | 192 |
Portland State 56-14 W | N/A | 127 |
Washington State 45-24 W | 0.11 (118th) | 259 |
Utah State 62-30 W | 0.11 (115th) | 186 |
Hawai'i 28-7 W | 0.04 (81st) | 217 |
UNLV 29-24 W | -0.04 (38th) | 128 |
San Diego State 56-24 W | 0.13 (122nd) | 149 |
Nevada 28-21 W | 0.13 (123rd) | 209 |
San Jose State 42-21 W | -0.07 (30th) | 159 |
Wyoming 17-13 W | 0.07 (97th) | 169 |
Oregon State 34-18 W | 0.17 (129th) | 226 |
UNLV 21-7 W | -0.04 (38th) | 209 |
Penn State | -0.14 (6th) | ?? |
Jeanty’s season has been remarkable, but considering the level of competition that Boise State has faced, especially in terms of run defense, it’s a good thing that Travis Hunter won the Heisman Trophy. The last Group of Five player to win the Heisman was BYU quarterback Ty Detmer in 1990, and that’s for good reason.
Penn State has not seen a running back like Jeanty this season, there isn’t another one like him in college football, but maybe more importantly, Jeanty hasn’t seen a run defense like Penn State’s.
Jeanty thrives on broken tackles, averaging 5.48 yards after contract per carry with 135 missed tackles forced. Penn State won’t be dropping the superstar on first contact all night in Glendale, but with only nine missed tackles this year, Kobe King is one of the most sure tacklers in the country and will spearhead the defensive effort.
The Nittany Lions will sell out to stop Jeanty and almost certainly have more success than any other team has in 2024, so it could come down to what quarterback Maddux Madsen can do against the Penn State secondary. Madsen has been great, but that’s a bet Allen and James Franklin should be willing to make and it’s the reason Vegas expected Penn State to advance to the CFP semifinal with ease.