It’s great to have an easy schedule, and Penn State has the easiest in the Big Ten. In fact, it looks even easier after Week 1, with the Nittany Lions climbing two spots to No. 16 in the Week 1 AP Poll and two of its toughest opponents, Washington and Michigan, suffering significant slides after shaky outings.
Washington fell two spots to No. 19 after a 24-10 Apple Cup win exposed serious offensive line issues for the Huskies. Michigan fell completely out of the Top 25, receiving just 69 voting points after a controversial last-second Hail Mary win over Western Michigan at the Big House on Saturday night.
Now, typically, any upward movement in the polls is good for a program, but because Penn State has such a soft schedule, any fall from its top opponents further shrinks the margin for error in Happy Valley.
Penn State needs Washington and Michigan to be resume builders
On the bright side, USC, Penn State’s White Out opponent in Week 6, held firm at No. 14, separating from a tie with BYU, which fell to No. 15. The Trojans are 2-0 behind veteran quarterback Jayden Maiava’s brilliance and a fresh batch of five-stars, so it seems, anyway, that the White Out could be a top-15 showdown at Beaver Stadium.
As for Michigan and Washington, which Penn State faces in Week 7 and Week 10, respectively, if they fall out of the top 25 entirely, Penn State may be forced to go 11-1 to have a strong case for an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff.
It’s hard to imagine a 10-2 Big Ten team being left out, but just last year, 10-2 Vanderbilt finished No. 14, so there is precedent for it.
Considering how Michigan looked in Week 1 and how brutally tough the schedule for the Wolverines is, it’s actually reasonable to believe that they are unranked by Week 7 and finish the year outside the top 25. So, let’s play out this hypothetical: Penn State goes 10-2 with losses to USC and Washington, the only two ranked teams on its schedule. How does that resume compare to 9-3 teams from the SEC with multiple ranked wins? Probably not favorably.
Almost no matter how you look at it, 10-2 Penn State will be on the bubble at best, unless Washington, Michigan, and USC are all very strong, or some other team on the schedule comes out of nowhere and puts together an eight- or nine-win season.
But the thing is, the best candidates for that are Wisconsin, which got drubbed by Notre Dame in Week 1 after looking strong for a half, Minnesota, and Maryland. Otherwise, Penn State plays Northwestern, Purdue, and Rutgers, which had the ugliest loss of Week 1, falling to UMass at home.
So, it’s positive that Penn State is heading in the right direction after beating Marshall 45-0 and looking nearly flawless in the process. But if the teams on its schedule don’t hold up their end of the bargain, Matt Campbell’s team will need to be nearly flawless in Big Ten play, and that's a tall order.
Add us as a preferred source on Google