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Penn State’s men’s basketball vs Rutgers breakdown, odds and prediction

After a convincing victory against preseason Big Ten favorite Purdue, Penn State travels to Piscataway to clash with Rutgers on Tuesday night

By Justin Segal

Penn State guard D'Marco Dunn
Penn State guard D'Marco Dunn / Rich Schultz/GettyImages
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The final score for Penn State’s win over Purdue last week was a tad deceiving, as Penn State handled business easier than the 81-70 final indicated. Nevertheless, it was a game that convinced numerous Associated Press poll voters to put Penn State in their top 25 rankings. 

The week six AP poll was released on Monday afternoon, and the Nittany Lions were just left off the top 25 rankings, slotting in as the fifth team left off the list. Penn State men’s basketball has not been ranked in the AP poll since March 2nd, 2020.

Penn State sits at 8-1 (1-0 conference) in their season so far. Their win against Purdue raised their metric rankings drastically, as they are now ranked 18th in the NCAA NET rankings and 33rd in KenPom. Ace Baldwin Jr. has spearheaded the Nittany Lions so far, averaging 15.1 points, 8.1 assists and 2.1 steals per game. Penn State has six players averaging over nine points per game, a true testament to how terrific head coach Mike Rhoades has been this season.

Rutgers enters Tuesday’s game with a 5-4 (0-1) record in their 2024-25 campaign. Head coach Steve Pikell was able to land two top three 2024 recruits, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, and they have led this Rutgers squad through the first nine games of the season. Harper and Bailey combined are averaging 41 points per game, though, they are not receiving much help from their teammates.

For comparison, Rutgers is ranked 84th in the NET rankings and 74th in KenPom. Rutgers competed in the Players Era Festival tournament in Las Vegas a few weeks ago. They went 1-2, defeating Notre Dame and former Penn State head coach Micah Shrewsberry in overtime, but dropped competitive games to two top 20 ranked teams in Alabama and Texas A&M. Rutgers also lost their opening conference game to Ohio State 80-66 on Saturday.

What factors should be highlighted in the stylistic matchup between these two teams? Let’s break it down.

Get your track shoes ready

  • Penn State and Rutgers are both top 25 fastest offenses by possession length in the country.
  • Rutgers struggled against Kennesaw State’s fast tempo, losing the matchup 79-77.
  • Penn State thrives in high-tempo games, especially in transition with Baldwin, Kern, etc.

Unstoppable force meets immovable object

  • Rutgers’ opponent steal percentage is 5.8%, the 3rd best number in the country, meaning they do not allow teams to steal the ball from them
  • Penn State’s defense is 5th in the country in steal percentage at 15.1%.
  • Penn State had 14 steals vs Purdue, forcing 24 turnovers.
  • Rutgers had 14 turnovers vs Ohio State, yet the Buckeyes only finished with 4 steals, Rutgers limits transition opportunities for their opponents.
  • If Penn State can break the clean offense of Rutgers, it might be another comfortable victory for them, but I wouldn’t rely on it.

Offensive rebounding will be pivotal for Penn State

  • Rutgers is ranked 285th in the country in opposing offensive rebounding percentage, as Penn State’s offense is in the top 85 for the category. 
  • Offensive rebounds creates more shots and chances, and Penn State already has a massive advantage against Rutgers’ poor defense.

Experienced defensive artist vs. young phenom: Ace Baldwin Jr vs. Dylan Harper

  • Harper has been the most productive freshman in college basketball, averaging 23.1 points, 4.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game on 50.7% shooting from the floor, yet he must meet Ace Baldwin Jr.
  • Baldwin faced Big Ten preseason Player of the Year Braden Smith last game, holding him to a mere six points in the contest.
  • Dylan Harper must navigate Penn State’s full court press all game, which is a tall task for a freshman, but Harper isn’t your average freshman.
  • This will be the matchup to watch all night, so get your popcorn ready everyone

Penn State vs Rutgers odds and prediction

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

*Lines subject to change*

Moneyline

  • Rutgers -115
  • Penn State -104

Spread

  • Rutgers -1.5 (-106)
  • Penn State +1.5 (-114)

Total

  • 157.5 (over -114/under -106)

Prediction

  • Penn State 81, Rutgers 74

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