It’s weird to think back on it now, but Penn State began the year at No. 18 in the AP Poll and climbed as high as No. 13 before its Week 4 loss to Wisconsin at Beaver Stadium. That was just the first of four consecutive losses that sank the Nittany Lions to 4-4 overall before Saturday’s Week 9 win over Purdue and dispelled any ideas of Matt Campbell reaching the College Football Playoff in his first year in Happy Valley.
The Nittany Lions were a trendy dark horse pick because of a soft schedule, and even for all the disappointment of the first half of the year, that soft schedule is still laid out in front of this team and could have sneaky CFP implications for USC.
The Trojans were the only team that Penn State has played or will play this season to appear in the first CFP rankings of the year, revealed on Tuesday night. Lincoln Riley’s team checked in at No. 20 after beating Ohio State, which slid to No. 12 and isn’t getting much respect from the committee with starting quarterback Julian Sayin out.
That No. 20 ranking was two spots below where USC was in the AP Poll, and overall, the ranking wasn't particularly kind to the Big Ten. Undefeated UCLA was only No. 8 and just six Big Ten teams were featured in the Top 25 compared to 10 from the SEC (which is probably correct, to be fair, but does complicate USC's path).
Ohio State is the marquee win on a USC resume that features losses to Oregon, which checked in at No. 23, and unranked Wisconsin. Coming up after a Week 10 bye for the Trojans are No. 4 Indiana and No. 8 UCLA, so, obviously, those games will have a greater bearing on whether or not they make the CFP and whether or not Riley keeps his job. Still, Penn State could sneakily bolster the resume for a team that has a good chance to get lumped in with a large group of 9-3 teams seeking an at-large bid into the 12-team field.
8-4 Penn State would suddenly be a bit of a resume win for USC
Penn State looked the best it has all season coming out of its bye week against Purdue, handling the Boilermakers 31-17. Now, a win over Purdue should never materially alter your perception of how good or not a team is, but it’s hard to deny that the team showed a level of competence it hasn’t displayed since Big Ten play started.
The Nittany Lions are a 1.5-point underdog to Washington in Week 10 and have Minnesota at home in Week 11 before hosting Rutgers and visiting Maryland, clearly two of the three worst teams in the Big Ten. Now, Campbell doesn’t suddenly deserve trust that he’ll win coin flips or handle inferior opponents, but it’s also hard not to start dreaming about an 8-4 finish.
If that happens, again, it doesn’t significantly change the state of the program and shouldn’t lead to any sweeping overreactions because this schedule is so ridiculously soft. However, in a year where the SEC is beating up on itself, the CFP committee isn’t giving the ACC or the Big 12 much respect, and the Big Ten has largely been underwhelming; 8-4 Penn State riding a five-game win streak might get a sniff of the top 25 in the final rankings.
Will it be justified? Probably not, but it can be used to justify the case for USC to grab an at-large if it does finish 9-3, beating the Nittany Lions at home in a White Out Game, and help the Trojans convince themselves not to fire Riley and pay his exorbitant $70+ million buyout.
Penn State wasted a gift of a Big Ten schedule by hiring Campbell so late in the process and giving him no time to build a better roster (though maybe he would’ve happily imported Iowa State anyway). It had every reason to be somewhere in the rankings on Tuesday night. But it didn’t, and there isn’t much CFP intrigue because of the schedule. But USC’s fate is worth monitoring if Penn State can trick the committee into thinking it was a quality win for the Badgers, Wildcats, Trojans, and Wolverines.
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