Washington and Penn State were back-to-back in the preseason AP Poll, ranked No. 17 and 18, respectively, part of a run of four Big Ten teams with USC at No. 14 and Michigan at No. 15. Those four were fittingly understood as the next tier of conference contenders behind the preseason Big 3 of Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.
Oregon, the preseason No. 2 team in the country, is understandably the most high-profile disappointment from the Big Ten, but Washington slumping to 5-3 (3-2) and Penn State starting off Big Ten play 0-4 before handling Purdue in Week 9 to get to 4-4 (1-4) have left the conference searching for depth. And has left this Week 10 matchup much less consequential.
UCLA’s emergence has helped, and Northwestern has punched above its weight, but the Big Ten was counting on Penn State and Washington, if not to represent legitimate College Football Playoff contenders, at least to represent resume-building wins for the top dogs. Instead, both are situated at the bottom of a middle class that features Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska, who have spent the year beating up on each other.
Fittingly, as Penn State and Washington have settled in a similar place, both coming off wins into this Week 10 matchup, the Huskies are the narrowest of favorites at home.
Penn State vs. Washington odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State +104
- Washington -125
Spread
- Penn State +1.5 (-104)
- Washington -1.5 (-118)
Total
- 44.5 (over -110/under -110)
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Penn State’s Purdue improvements will be put to the test
If you consider home field to be worth about 2.5 points, which is largely standard, and factor in the juice on the Washington -1.5 side, these teams are power-rated almost identically. That’s true by Bill Connelly’s SP+, which has Penn State at No. 36 with a 9.8 rating and Washington at No. 39 with a 9.2.
Now, it will likely be a matter of which team is heading in a better direction down the stretch. The Huskies were able to keep the Nebraska offense in check in their win in Lincoln, but needed a quarterback change - back to Week 1 starter Demond Williams - to jump-start the offense in the fourth quarter. Yet, they still only scored 17 points with a pick-six.
A resurgent Penn State run defense should continue to thrive against a Washington offense that hasn’t been able to run the ball at all this year. The real question lies on the other side of the ball, however, after the Nittany Lions and Cam Wallace ran wild on Purdue in Week 9.
Washington’s run D is excellent, ranking No. 22 in the country in rushing success rate, so if Penn State can’t run the ball, it will be incumbent on Rocco Becht to win the game. Against Big Ten opponents, that’s been a losing formula. The good news there, however, is that Chase Sowell and Koby Howard will both likely return from injury. If that’s confirmed, it could move the line slightly in Penn State’s direction.
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