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Penn State men’s basketball vs Purdue breakdown, odds and prediction

Penn State opens their conference play at the Bryce Jordan Center against Purdue, the top ranked team in the Big Ten

By Justin Segal

Penn State guard Nick Kern Jr., Purdue forward Camden Heide
Penn State guard Nick Kern Jr., Purdue forward Camden Heide / Michael Hickey/GettyImages
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Sweat with us. 

That’s the motto Penn State basketball head coach Mike Rhoades is rolling with this season. He’s calling for Penn State students to show out, be loud, and sweat with the team as they battle a tough Purdue squad on Thursday night.

Penn State is sitting at 7-1 so far through its 2024-25 campaign, with a close loss to Clemson ,who happened to defeat top-five-ranked Kentucky on Tuesday night. The Nittany Lions have solid wins over Virginia Tech, Purdue Fort-Wayne, and Fordham, but are aiming to add a great win against the Boilermakers.

Purdue, similar to Penn State, has started their season 7-1. Their strength of record is far superior, as they have wins over Alabama, Ole Miss, and NC State. Their sole loss came in their only road game against Marquette. Junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has taken a big stride to try and fill the void of Zach Edey for Purdue, and his matchup against Penn State’s Yanic Konan-Niederhauser will be an entertaining one to watch.

What will decide this game? Let’s break down three factors.

Controlling the pace

  • Penn State plays at the 30th fastest pace in college basketball, Purdue at the 341st fastest.
  • Purdue has a meticulous, structured half-court offense. Penn State struggles with half-court scoring occasionally, shown vs Clemson.
  • Fast tempo will favor Penn State, Ace Baldwin Jr. thrives in transition, especially with Nick Kern on the outlet passes.
  • Slow tempo will favor Purdue, Braden Smith will pick Penn State apart and Purdue will get great looks from three.

Steals & turnovers

  • Penn State is 4th in steals per game in the country, and Purdue is 340th. 
  • Against Marquette in an 18-point loss, Purdue turned it over 15 times, and Marquette had 11 steals. This limited Purdue’s number of shots, a goal of Penn State’s on Thursday night.
  • Penn State struggled vs Clemson in this category, only stealing the ball from Clemson five times and turning it over themselves 17 times.
  • This comes down to Penn State, if they can force Smith and Purdue into sloppy passes then the Nittany Lions should win this contest.

Konan-Niederhauser vs Kaufman-Renn

  • Kaufman-Renn has been terrific offensively, averaging nearly 20 points per game. Along with Smith, they run a fantastic two-man game, and Konan-Niederhauser will have his hands full with them.
  • Kaufman-Renn is not great defensively, however, and only has one block this season. Baldwin and Konan-Niederhauser run a great two-man game themselves, and it will be interesting how Kaufman-Renn and coach Matt Painter defend it too.
  • Penn State should focus on getting downhill to the rim, especially with Nick Kern Jr. and Freddie Dilione V, due to the lack of rim protection
  • Konan-Niederhauser has to stay out of foul trouble, which has been an issue for him all season. Purdue must attempt to get him in foul trouble, and if it succeeds, it might be a long night for Penn State fans

Penn State vs Purdue odds and prediction 

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

*Lines subject to change*

Moneyline

  • Penn State -126
  • Purdue +105

Spread

  • Penn State -1.5 (-114)
  • Purdue +1.5 (-106)

Total

  • 149.5 (over -110/under -110)

Prediction

  • Penn State 75, Purdue 71

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