Penn State head coach Mike Rhoades is entering his fourth season in Happy Valley, and he’s looking to turn the program around. The Nittany Lions sank to just 12 wins last season, buried in the basement of the 18-team Big Ten, and without much investment, climbing out won’t be easy.
However, Rhoades had a clear plan to make the most of the resources at his disposal this offseason, looking to get older, taller, tougher, and a lot more European. If Rhoades’ bet on veteran transfers and overseas imports hits, the Nittany Lions could be a tough matchup for most of the conference, but will that be enough to elevate into the NCAA Tournament picture? That might be asking a bit too much.
Penn State preseason rankings
- AP Poll: unranked
- KenPom: 87
- EvanMiya: 102 (117 without ineligible)
- BartTorvik: 99
Penn State 2025-26 rankings finish
Record: 12-20 (3-17)
- AP Poll: unranked
- NET rankings: 138
- KenPom: 139
- EvanMiya: 136
- BarTorvik: 140
Penn State 2026-27 projected starting 5 and rotation:
- PG: Dasonte Bowen, 6-2, 190 lbs - St. Bonaventure
- SG: Brant Byers, 6-8, 200 lbs - Miami (OH)
- SF: Josh Reed, 6-8, 220 lbs - Returner
- PF: Roko Prkacin, 6-8, 230 lbs - Nanterre 92 (If eligible)
- C: Ivan Juric, 7-0, 250 lbs - Returner
Expected bench contributors:
- Robert Blums, 6-4, 190 lbs - Davidson
- Tim Oboh, 6-11, 230 lbs - Buffalo
- Jay Rodgers, 6-3, 185 lbs - Central Connecticut State
- Francois Wibaut, 6-7, 235 lbs - France
- Thomas Allard, 6-7, 210 lbs - Alabama-Huntsville
Rhoades strayed from his identity of defense and physicality last year, fielding a young team with more theoretical scoring upside, particularly with the program’s highest-ranked recruit ever, Kayden Mingo, but that also presented a significantly lower floor than Rhoades had previously hit.
It seems that identity has been rekindled with a group of big, physical veterans, especially if Rhoades does start Byers, a sharpshooting Miami (OH) transfer, in the backcourt and gets Roko Prkacin, who should be his team’s best player, eligible. If that group comes together, it won’t be the best team in the Big Ten by any stretch, but it won’t be a fun matchup for most opponents either, and that’s a reality most Penn State basketball fans can probably stomach.
Penn State 2026-27 game-by-game W/L prediction
- 7:30, Mon, Nov. 2 vs. Canisius - WIN (1)
- 6:00, Thu, Nov. 5 vs. Chattanooga - WIN (2)
- 8:00, Sun, Nov. 8 vs. Pittsburgh - WIN (3)
- 6:30, Thu, Nov. 12 vs. Mercyhurst - WIN (4)
- 4:30, Sun, Nov. 15 vs. New Haven - WIN (5)
- 6:30, Wed, Nov. 18 vs. IU Indy - WIN (6)
- 5:00, Wed, Nov. 25 vs. Memphis - LOSS
- 7:30, Fri, Nov. 27 vs. Wake Forest/Mississippi State - LOSS
- 7:00, Tue, Dec. 1 vs. UAlbany - WIN (7)
- 8:00, Tue, Dec. 8 vs. Nebraska - LOSS
- 2:00 Sat, Dec. 12 at Illinois - LOSS
- 6:30 Wed, Dec. 16 vs. UT Martin - WIN (8)
- 2:30 Sat, Dec. 19 vs. Lafayette - WIN (9)
- 7:00 Tue, Dec. 22 vs. Saint Joseph’s - LOSS
- 2:00 Sat, Jan. 2 vs. Oregon - WIN (10)
- 8:30 Wed, Jan. 6 at Minnesota - LOSS
- 12:00 Sun, Jan. 10 vs. Northwestern - WIN (11)
- 7:00 Wed, Jan. 13 at Wisconsin - LOSS
- 12:00 Sun, Jan. 17 at Ohio State - LOSS
- 6:30 Wed, Jan. 20 vs. Purdue - LOSS
- 4:00 Sat, Jan. 23 at Iowa - LOSS
- 7:00 Tue, Jan. 26 at Michigan State - LOSS
- 12:00 Sat, Jan. 30 vs. Maryland - LOSS
- 6:00 Tue, Feb. 2 vs. Indiana - WIN (12)
- 12:00 Sat, Feb. 6 vs. Ohio State - LOSS
- 9:30 Fri, Feb. 12 at Nebraska - LOSS
- 7:00 Wed, Feb. 17 vs. Washington - WIN (13)
- 1:00 Sat, Feb. 20 at Rutgers - WIN (14)
- 6:00 Tue, Feb. 23 vs. Michigan - LOSS
- 10:30 Sat, Feb. 27 at UCLA - LOSS
- 9:00 Tue, Mar. 2 at USC - LOSS
- 3:00 Sun, Mar. 7 vs. Rutgers - LOSS
RECORD: 14-18 (5-15 Big Ten)
There are some intriguing pieces on this roster, and if both Reed, who recently won his eligibility, and Prkacin, who is still awaiting a ruling, are on the floor together, this team could punch up and pull an upset or two in the Big Ten. There are also plenty of winnable games early, with the showdown against Pitt at The Palestra looming as a significant swing game early in the non-conference for the Nittany Lions.
Still, when you’re spending around $7-9 million on your roster, and the average roster in the Big Ten costs $12.7 million, with the high-end programs like Michigan and Illinois spending over $20 million, you’re not going to win enough games to play your way onto the bubble, even as the NCAA Tournament expands to 76 teams this year. That’s hardly a referendum on Rhoades; it’s just the harsh reality of the athletic department’s lack of investment.
Mike Rhoades' record at Penn State by year
- 2023-24: 16-17 (9-11)
- 2024-25: 16-15 (6-14)
- 2025-26: 12-20 (3-17)
- Overall at Penn State: 44-52
Most coaches with a 44-52 overall record and an 18-42 record in their first three years would be on a scorching hot seat, if they still had their job at all. However, Rhoades has four years left on the seven-year, $25.9 million contract he signed to leave VCU for Penn State. There’s no reason for Penn State to pay two coaches for three years when it could just put that almost $4 million into the roster to help Rhoades.
Will the hot seat talk kick up if Rhoades stays at the bottom of the Big Ten again this year? Probably, but making a move doesn’t make much sense. With this level of investment, a job that was always difficult is borderline impossible. Until Penn State fans decide they’re not okay with that, Pat Kraft will be fine to ride it out with Rhoades.
Penn State’s last NCAA Tournament appearance
- 2023-23: No. 10 seed, first-round win over Texas A&M
- Head coach: Micah Shrewsberry
- Season record: 23-14 (10-10)
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