While the other eight Big Ten field hockey teams all played at least one conference game this past weekend, the Penn State Nittany Lions were on the road for two non-conference matchups, first at Lock Haven on Friday and then at Princeton on Sunday, ahead of their Big Ten regular season finale against Rutgers at home this coming Friday night.
With just one Big Ten game left on their regular season schedule, their postseason hopes hang by a thread, and the math behind it all is fascinating.
This past weekend of non-conference action followed a massive weekend of Big Ten play in State College. The huge double-overtime upset win over Iowa lifted Penn State to 2-4 in Big Ten play, good for sixth place in the Big Ten standings at the time, and 6-0 at home for the first time since 2016.
But the loss to Indiana, their first home loss against a Big Ten opponent in a game they scored first — and led at any point — since September 2015, dropped them to 2-5. They fell to eighth in the conference standings, ahead of only Michigan State. The top seven teams in the standings qualify for the Big Ten tournament.
Following the Indiana loss, Penn State was effectively put into the undesirable position of scoreboard watching this past weekend to see exactly how the Big Ten standings would look heading into the final week of regular season conference play — and more specifically, to see what all needs to happen to get them back into that top seven.
If Penn State qualifies, it would mark a return to the Big Ten Tournament after a one-year absence, and it would solidify hard-earned redemption for a team that’s battled through close games all season long.
With one week to go in the regular season following Sunday’s action, here’s how the Big Ten standings look.
Big Ten Field Hockey standings
Team | Wins | Losses | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
Maryland | 5 | 3 | 0.625 |
Iowa | 4 | 3 | 0.571 |
Indiana | 4 | 3 | 0.571 |
Rutgers | 3 | 4 | 0.429 |
Ohio State | 3 | 4 | 0.429 |
Michigan | 3 | 4 | 0.429 |
Penn State | 2 | 5 | 0.286 |
Michigan State | 1 | 6 | 0.143 |
All teams except Maryland still have a conference game remaining on their regular season schedule, so there are 16 possible outcomes in terms of how the Big Ten standings could look after this Friday.
In addition to Penn State’s game in Happy Valley against Rutgers, Iowa is set to travel to Ohio State, Northwestern is set to travel to Michigan State, and Indiana is set to travel to Michigan.
If the application of the head-to-head results tiebreaker is not enough to break a tie, the Big Ten’s official tiebreaker parameter document states that regulation wins are valued more than overtime wins, and overtime losses are valued more than regulation losses. So there are technically more than just 16 possibilities to consider.
The official second tiebreaker reads as follows, according to the Big Ten's website: Point total vs. all Conference teams (3 points for a win in regulation, 2 points for an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss, 0 points for a loss in regulation).
The third tiebreaker is the same exact tiebreaker, but it only involves the teams remaining in the tie.
These margins could end up making all the difference, but we won’t get into those exact possibilities except for those which are specifically applicable to Penn State within any of the scenarios outlined below – and yes, some of them are.
Additionally, the game between Northwestern and Michigan State has no way of impacting Penn State’s position in the Big Ten standings. Northwestern is locked into the No. 1 seed as the Big Ten regular season champions, and Michigan State is locked into last place and therefore eliminated, even if they pull off what would be the upset of the century – in any sport, for that matter.
For simplicity, we’ve broken down all four combinations of results of the other two remaining meaningful Big Ten games, as well as the effects each would have on Penn State if Penn State beats Rutgers.
Penn State, of course, can no longer qualify for the tournament with a loss and a 2-6 record, and because of the fact that seven other Big Ten teams all already have at least three conference wins, the Nittany Lions would need to rely on being on the right side of a tiebreaker to get in, even with a victory.
Let’s take a look at what all can happen – and what needs to happen for Penn State to get into the tournament – this Friday.
How Penn State can still qualify for the Big Ten tournament
If Penn State wins…
Penn State would finish the regular season 3-5 in Big Ten play.
Scenario 1: If Iowa and Indiana win…
Penn State would finish in a four-way tie with Michigan, Ohio State, and Rutgers, and three of the four teams would qualify for the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan and Ohio State would own 2-1 records against teams in this group, whereas Rutgers and Penn State would be 1-2. Ohio State beat Michigan head-to-head, so they would own the first tiebreaker.
Because Michigan defeated both Rutgers and Penn State, they would qualify for the Big Ten tournament due to the fact that they own the head-to-head sweep. Penn State would then qualify due to the fact that they would have beaten Rutgers head-to-head.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN
Scenario 2: If Iowa and Michigan win…
Penn State would finish in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Rutgers, and two of the three teams would qualify for the Big Ten tournament.
Because Rutgers beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Penn State, and Penn State would have beaten Rutgers, the head-to-head tiebreaker would not initially apply here.
Here’s where regulation vs. overtime results matter, although in this particular scenario, they would not actually have an impact when it comes to the Michigan vs. Indiana game since neither team would be involved in the tie.
So let’s zero in on the other two.
Scenario 2A: If Iowa and Penn State both win in regulation, Ohio State and Rutgers would both have 10 points in the conference standings (two regulation wins, one overtime win, two overtime losses, and three regulation losses), whereas Penn State would have eight (two regulation wins and one overtime win). Rutgers would be awarded the tiebreaker due to the fact that they beat Ohio State head-to-head.
Ohio State would then be awarded the tiebreaker over Penn State due to their head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions, leaving Penn State out of the Big Ten tournament.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be OUT
Scenario 2B: If Iowa wins in regulation but Penn State wins in overtime, Rutgers would have 11 points and be awarded the tiebreaker over Ohio State and Penn State. Ohio State would then be awarded the tiebreaker over Penn State due to their head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions, leaving Penn State out of the Big Ten tournament.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be OUT
Scenario 2C: If Penn State wins in regulation but Iowa wins in overtime, Ohio State would have 11 points and be awarded the tiebreaker over Rutgers and Penn State. Penn State would then be awarded the tiebreaker over Rutgers due to their head-to-head victory over the Scarlet Knights, leaving Rutgers out of the Big Ten tournament.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN
Scenario 2D: If both Iowa and Penn State win in overtime, Ohio State and Rutgers would both have 11 points in the conference standings, whereas Penn State would have seven. Rutgers would be awarded the tiebreaker due to the fact that they beat Ohio State head-to-head.
Ohio State would then be awarded the tiebreaker over Penn State due to their head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions, leaving Penn State out of the Big Ten tournament.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be OUT
2024 comparison: Let's look at a comparable 2024 example to see how these scenarios line up with the Big Ten's tiebreaker process. In 2024, Rutgers beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Indiana, and Indiana beat Rutgers. All three teams finished at 4-4 in the Big Ten, tying them for fourth place.
Rutgers had 12 points, thanks to three regulation wins, an overtime (shootout) win, and an overtime loss (plus three regulation losses). Ohio State had 11, thanks to three regulation wins, an overtime (shootout) win, and four regulation losses. Indiana also had 11, thanks to two regulation wins, two overtime wins, and an overtime (shootout) loss.
Due to point total, Rutgers was awarded the initial tiebreaker and given the No. 4 seed. Ohio State was then awarded the second tiebreaker and given the No. 5 seed due to their head-to-head win over Indiana. Indiana was then slotted into the No. 6 seed.
Scenario 3: If Ohio State and Indiana win…
Penn State would finish in a three-way tie with Michigan and Rutgers, and two of the three teams would qualify for the Big Ten tournament.
Because Michigan defeated both Rutgers and Penn State, they would qualify for the Big Ten tournament due to the fact that they own the head-to-head sweep. Penn State would then qualify due to the fact that they would have beaten Rutgers head-to-head.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN
Scenario 4: If Ohio State and Michigan win…
Penn State would finish in a tie with Rutgers and only Rutgers, and the Nittany Lions would then be awarded the tiebreaker over Rutgers due to their head-to-head victory over the Scarlet Knights, placing them in the Big Ten tournament and leaving Rutgers out.
OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN
All postseason scenarios outlined above are based on the Big Ten’s official 2025 Field Hockey Tournament tiebreaker parameters and conference records heading into the 2025 season's final scheduled day of regular season conference action on Friday, October 31.
These parameters explicitly state that "Ties shall be considered separated when a team(s) emerges from the top, middle or bottom of the group and is awarded a seed(s)", after which point "all remaining tied teams shall restart the tiebreak process at the first criteria." Every scenario presented above was determined using this step-by-step process.
Penn State clinching scenarios, simplified
To summarize, if Penn State manages to beat Rutgers, they would qualify for the tournament as long as Ohio State beats Iowa and is therefore not involved in any tiebreakers.
But even if Iowa beats Ohio State, Penn State would still be in if Indiana beats Michigan. And yes, even if Iowa beats Ohio State and Michigan beats Indiana, Penn State would still be in if their win over Rutgers comes in regulation while Iowa’s win over Ohio State comes in overtime.
Easy enough, right?
At the end of the day, all Penn State can do is control what they can control. If they can manage that, will the rest fall into place?
For a team that’s shown flashes of its future throughout its first 16 games, and for the six seniors set to play their final game at Char Morett-Curtiss Field, Friday’s regular season finale represents both one last stand and a shot at something bigger.
Regardless of what happens, it is worth mentioning the fact that Penn State very well could have been eliminated completely this past weekend. In fact, they would have been, had Rutgers beaten Maryland.
But they weren't, and now they have a shot. That’s all anybody can ask for heading into the final week of the regular season, and it's a shot they've earned.
Big Ten items to note
A few other items worth noting are the fact that, even if they fall to 3-5, Ohio State and Michigan are both locked into the top seven and therefore the Big Ten tournament.
At 3-5, they would potentially finish ahead of a 2-6 Penn State team, but even if they are tied with Penn State, they would also be tied with Rutgers. Whether it’s a three-way tie (involving either Ohio State or Michigan) or a four-way tie (involving both), the scenarios outlined above show that neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines can end up on the wrong end of any tiebreakers.
With Northwestern, Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana all locked in, this means that six of the seven tournament teams are already determined.
In other words, the seventh and final spot is set to come down to Penn State and Rutgers, one way or another – even if the result of that game isn’t 100% guaranteed to determine who gets it.
This is the case despite the fact that Rutgers actually owns the current three-way tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan for fifth place in the Big Ten standings. Rutgers beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Michigan, and Michigan beat Rutgers. But Rutgers and Ohio State currently lead the trio with 10 points, so it’s Rutgers’ head-to-head win over Ohio State which gives them the tiebreaker as things stand right now.
All four Big Ten games can be streamed live on B1G+ this Friday, October 31. Iowa @ Ohio State is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET, Northwestern @ Michigan State is scheduled to get underway at 3:00 p.m. ET, and both Rutgers @ Penn State and Indiana @ Michigan are scheduled to get underway at 5:00 p.m. ET.