In discussing the Big Ten tournament-clinching scenarios for the Penn State Nittany Lions Field Hockey team following their massive upset victory on Friday night over the No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes, we outlined the ways the team can qualify for the postseason this year after missing out in 2024.
By winning that game, the Nittany Lions have given themselves paths to the tournament if they win the two remaining Big Ten games on their regular season schedule, win only the first game against Indiana, win only the second game against Rutgers, or believe it or not, even if they win neither.
Now sitting at 2-4 in conference play after their electric 1-0 double-overtime win, in which stellar all-around defensive play and a game-winner from freshman Olivia Marthins solidified their first 6-0 start at home since 2016, Penn State is sixth in the Big Ten standings. The top seven teams in the nine-team conference qualify for the Big Ten tournament.
On paper, you'd think that winning out would guarantee the Big Ten's last remaining unbeaten home team a spot in the postseason, and it almost certainly does.
But not necessarily, and that's where we'd like to correct a small oversight from the other night.
Because two of the teams that trail Penn State have fewer losses than they do (both have played two fewer games), there is technically an insane (yet totally plausible) scenario in which seven of the nine Big Ten teams can end up tied for second place in the conference standings at 4-4.
This would result in the Big Ten's incredibly complicated tiebreaker process coming into play, and one of those seven teams would miss out on the conference tournament completely.
First things first: here is how the current Big Ten standings look heading into Sunday's absolutely loaded schedule.
There are eight conference games on each team's regular season schedule, one against each school. Results of non-conference games are not included in the standings below.
Big Ten Field Hockey Standings
School | Wins | Losses | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
Ohio State | 3 | 1 | 0.750 |
Maryland | 4 | 2 | 0.667 |
Michigan | 3 | 2 | 0.600 |
Rutgers | 3 | 2 | 0.600 |
Penn State | 2 | 4 | 0.333 |
Iowa | 1 | 3 | 0.250 |
Indiana | 1 | 3 | 0.250 |
Michigan State | 0 | 4 | 0.000 |
Michigan currently owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Rutgers, and Iowa currently owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indiana.
The scenario outlined below is a very specific scenario. It requires 14 of the remaining 15 conference games to go a certain way and only has a 0.006% chance of happening if we assume all single-game outcomes are 50/50. But it's still possible, so saying there's no chance wouldn't be accurate.
For now, we'll leave "no chance" to things like the likelihood of Penn State qualifying for the College Football Playoff. But I digress.
Here's a list of what would need to happen for this scenario to come to fruition.
Seven-way tie in the Big Ten Field Hockey standings?
School | Needs to beat... | Needs to lose to... |
|---|---|---|
Northwestern | Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State | |
Ohio State | Michigan State | Indiana, Northwestern, Iowa |
Maryland | Northwestern, Rutgers | |
Michigan | Iowa | Northwestern, Indiana |
Rutgers | Maryland | Iowa, Penn State |
Penn State | Indiana, Rutgers | |
Iowa | Rutgers, Michigan State, Ohio State | Michigan |
Indiana | Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan | Penn State |
Michigan State | Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana |
If this all happens, then Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana would all possess 4-4 records in Big Ten competition.
The only remaining game on this year's Big Ten regular season schedule that has no effect whatsoever on this potential tiebreaker process is the Northwestern vs. Michigan State game, but I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that the reigning national champions, and current No. 1 team in the country, are probably going to win that one anyway.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, which is obviously not applicable when the whole group of seven 4-4 teams would be 3-3 against one another. And yes, the 3-3 records would be guaranteed, since under this scenario, none of the teams would have beaten Northwestern, and all of them would have beaten Michigan State.
So with the head-to-head tiebreaker doing nobody any good here, that's when the Big Ten's tiebreaker process would begin to assign three points to regulation wins, two points to overtime wins, one point to overtime losses, and no points to regulation losses.
Here's how the tiebreaker officially reads, according to the Big Ten's website: Point total vs. all Conference teams (3 points for a win in regulation, 2 points for
an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss, 0 points for a loss in regulation).
We obviously don't know exactly how many of each category each 4-4 team would have at that point; there are thousands upon thousands of combinations to sort through, and that's even knowing what we already know about the current tallies of each team.
Bottom line, one 4-4 team would ultimately fail to qualify for the Big Ten tournament if this all unfolds, and yes, there's technically a (very slim) chance it could be Penn State.
Far-fetched? Sure. Possible? Absolutely.
And all the proof we need exists in what has already happened in Big Ten play this year.
Anybody can beat anybody, and that's an understatement in a conference as stacked as the Big Ten is. Particularly when you look at this group of seven teams, a group which includes five teams ranked between No. 10 and No. 15 alone in the latest Penn Monto/NFHCA Division I National Coaches Poll, the parity is undeniable.
Let's start with Penn State.
Penn State beat Iowa. Iowa beat Indiana. Indiana beat Maryland. Maryland beat Michigan. Michigan beat Rutgers. Rutgers beat Ohio State. And to complete what NFL fans have come to recognize as the "Circle of Parity", Ohio State beat Penn State.
So yes, anybody can truly beat anybody.
If you take all 16,384 possible combinations of win-loss outcomes of the 14 games outlined in the chart above, that one particular scenario – the one and only scenario which would produce this seven-way tie – has just as much chance of unfolding as any of the other 16,383 do.
Even if it does happen, however, Penn State could still very well be one of the six (seven total, including Northwestern) teams that get into the tournament. So yes, if they win out in Big Ten play to get to 4-4, there is quite literally a 99.7% chance that they would get in.
Regardless, the race for the Big Ten tournament is poised to heat up over the final two weeks of the 2025 regular season. And for Penn State, that is scheduled to begin with a matchup against Indiana at Char Morett-Curtiss Field on Sunday, with the Nittany Lions attempting to preserve their perfect home record.
Live coverage of the game is set to be streamed on B1G+ beginning at 10:45 a.m. ET. Although it's not the final home game on Penn State's 2025 regular season schedule, it's Senior Day for the Nittany Lions, meaning that Ella Jennes, Anouk Knuvers, Sophia Mannino, Morgan McMenamin, Aubrey Semler, and Madison Tambroni are all set to be honored.
What better way to celebrate than by getting to 7-0 on the year in State College and further bolstering the team's Big Ten tournament hopes?