Ohio State just made Penn State's postseason path crystal clear

When the Penn State Nittany Lions Field Hockey Instagram account shared their promo ahead of Friday night's regular season finale against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, there was something fitting about the fact that Michael Jackson's "Thriller" was used as the background music.

No, not just because Friday is Halloween, but because of the fact that this team is indeed in a position of "fighting for your life" when it comes to qualifying for the Big Ten tournament.

Penn State (7-9, 2-5 Big Ten) absolutely needs to beat Rutgers (8-8, 3-4 Big Ten) on Friday night at Char Morett-Curtiss Field, where they boast a Big Ten-best 6-1 home record this year, to have a chance to qualify for next week's Big Ten tournament in Bloomington.

The Nittany Lions are 4-0 in Friday night home games this year, and both of their conference wins have come in such games.

But aside from another Friday night victory, what else – if anything – needs to happen to get Penn State back to the postseason for the first time since 2023?

The result of today's first Big Ten matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes in Columbus certainly went a long way toward shaping that picture (even if it did, in some respect, make things slightly more confusing).

Here's a look at the Big Ten standings after Iowa's Friday afternoon win.

Big Ten Field Hockey standings

The top seven of nine teams qualify for the Big Ten tournament.

We already mapped out every possible outcome of today's three meaningful Big Ten games and the effects each would have on Penn State with a win.

But that was before Iowa beat Ohio State – and yes, the fact that it happened in double overtime, rather than in regulation, could be extremely important for Penn State. We'll touch more on that below.

At any rate, with that game in the books, the picture is a lot clearer for Penn State heading into tonight's regular season finale.

In addition to Penn State's game against Rutgers, the Michigan Wolverines are also set to host the Indiana Hoosiers this evening at 5:00 p.m. ET.

How would the outcome of that game in Ann Arbor affect Penn State's Big Ten tournament chances if Penn State can come out on top against Rutgers, now that Iowa has defeated Ohio State?

Let's have a look at what needs to happen.

How Penn State can qualify for the Big Ten tournament

All scenarios assume Penn State defeats Rutgers to get to 3-5 in Big Ten play, as Penn State would be eliminated with a loss.

If Michigan wins...

Penn State would finish in a tie with Rutgers and Ohio State.

The Big Ten's official tiebreaker parameter document states that the first tiebreaker is head-to-head results. But because Rutgers beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Penn State, and Penn State would have beaten Rutgers, this tiebreaker would not solve anything in this particular scenario.

The second tiebreaker is based on point total against all Big Ten teams. Here is how the conference awards points: 3 points for a win in regulation, 2 points for an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss, 0 points for a loss in regulation.

Ohio State has 11 points, which is why the fact that they lost today in double overtime, rather than in regulation, is huge, because it actually sets up two sub-scenarios here.

If Michigan wins and Penn State wins in regulation...

Rutgers would have 10 points, while Penn State would have 8.

The Big Ten tiebreaker parameters state that "Ties shall be considered separated when a team(s) emerges from the top, middle or bottom of the group and is awarded a seed(s)", and that "Once a seed is awarded, all remaining tied teams shall restart the tiebreak process at the first criteria."

On points, Ohio State would emerge at the top of the group and thus be awarded the first tiebreaker.

That would leave us with just Rutgers and Penn State, and we would then revert to head-to-head results. Because Penn State would have beaten Rutgers head-to-head, the Nittany Lions would be awarded the second tiebreaker over the Scarlet Knights.

OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN

If Michigan wins and Penn State wins in overtime...

Rutgers would then have 11 points, while Penn State would have 7.

On points, Ohio State and Rutgers would both emerge at the top of the group, meaning that we would revert to head-to-head results. Rutgers would be awarded that tiebreaker because they beat Ohio State head-to-head.

That would leave us with just Ohio State and Penn State, and we would again revert to head-to-head results. Because Ohio State beat Penn State head-to-head, the Buckeyes would be awarded the second tiebreaker over the Nittany Lions.

OUTCOME: Penn State would be OUT

If Indiana wins...

Penn State would finish in a tie with Rutgers, Ohio State, and Michigan.

The Big Ten tiebreaker parameters also state that "The higher winning percentage shall prevail when comparing records against a single team or group of teams, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal."

For that reason, based strictly on the Big Ten's wording of this process, conference points would not be applied in this scenario.

Ohio State beat Michigan and Penn State (2-1 record within this group), Michigan beat Rutgers and Penn State (2-1), Rutgers beat Ohio State (1-2), and Penn State would have beaten Rutgers (1-2).

So based on the Big Ten's step-by-step tiebreaker process, we would separate Ohio State and Michigan from Rutgers and Penn State. We would then revert to head-to-head results, and Ohio State would be awarded the first tiebreaker because they beat Michigan head-to-head.

That would leave us with Michigan, Rutgers, and Penn State. Because Michigan beat both Rutgers and Penn State head-to-head, they would be awarded the second tiebreaker.

This means that the third tiebreaker would come down to the head-to-head result between Rutgers and Penn State. In this scenario, Penn State would have beaten Rutgers head-to-head and would thus be awarded the tiebreaker.

OUTCOME: Penn State would be IN

For as complicated as it is, it's really quite simple.

Based on the exact verbiage shared publicly on the Big Ten's official website regarding tiebreaker parameters, Penn State would qualify for the Big Ten tournament with a regulation win over Rutgers, OR with a win (of any kind) over Rutgers coupled with a Michigan loss to Indiana.

And just as a closing side note, for the purpose of clarity, today's other Big Ten game without any conference tournament implications is a matchup between Northwestern and Michigan State. The Wildcats are already locked into the No. 1 seed as Big Ten regular season champions, while the Spartans can finish no higher than last place in the nine-team conference.

While Penn State's focus has always understandably been on winning and letting the rest take care of itself to avoid worrying about the results elsewhere throughout the Big Ten this week, perhaps they can use the fact that Rutgers actually spent time mapping out their own "with a loss" scenarios earlier this week as added motivation to win on Friday night.

Both of tonight's games can be streamed live on B1G+.