No. 4 Penn State vs. Maryland final odds and prediction in Week 14

From the very first rankings of 2024, the College Football Playoff committee gave Penn State a clear assignment, win and you’re in. The Nittany Lions have remained static at No. 4, even with a loss to No. 2 Ohio State on their resume, and after last week’s near disaster at Minnesota, James Franklin’s team still didn’t slide behind Notre Dame. 

11-1 Penn State will host a first-round playoff game at Beaver Stadium, and after beating Minnesota 26-25 last Saturday, only one game stands between the Nittany Lions and an 11-win regular season. 

In Week 14, Penn State will host 4-7 Maryland in its regular season finale for an at-large bid to the CFP, that’s not the only thing on the line when the Nittany Lions and Terrapins kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET in Happy Valley. Along with getting to the CFP for the first time, Franklin has a chance to win his second Big Ten title game, but he needs help from Michigan beating Ohio State to get in and face Oregon in Indianapolis. However, that may not be the best thing for Penn State. 

With so much on the line against an outmatched Maryalnd team, the Nittany Lions are considerable favorites in Week 14. Here’s a look at the odds. 

Maryland vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total

These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline

• Maryland +1400
• Penn State -4000

Spread

• Maryland +24.5 (-111)
• Penn State -24.5 (-115)

Total

• 50.5 (over -115/under -111)

Maryland vs. Penn State prediction

In 2020, Maryland, and plenty of other teams, beat a struggling Penn State team. The Terrapins won that year’s contest 35-19, but overall Franklin is 8-2 against the Terrapins and since 2017, when the Penn State program was really rolling, the Nittany Lions are 6-1 and have an average margin of victory of 40 points. This “rivalry” has been staggeringly lopsided and Franklin has loved to beat up on the program he was an assistant coach for from 2000-04. 

It wouldn’t be a surprise if this season’s matchup plays out similarly. Maryland has struggled to run the ball all season, and it won’t get any easier against a Penn State defense that ranks seventh nationally allowing under 100 yards per game. That has put a ton of pressure on quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. The redshirt junior has four 300-yard passing games this season, three of which have led to wins, but he’s coming off a thumb injury that forced him to leave last week’s loss to Iowa and could keep him on the sidelines on Saturday. 

If Edwards cannot go, it will be MJ Morris, who battled for the starting job before the season after transferring from NC State. Morris went 12/23 against the Hawkeyes for 103 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. The Terps have an explosive wide receiver in Tai Felton, who caught both touchdowns, but there isn’t enough talent on that side of the ball to threaten Tom Allen’s defense. 

Offensively, Penn State will be adjusting to life without right tackle Anthony Donkoh, who is out with a long-term injury he suffered on the first drive last week. The redshirt freshman is a budding star and his absence could be a problem in the CFP, but on Saturday against a Maryland defense that ranks 121st in sacks per game, Drew Allar will be protected and will lead the Nittany Lions to a blowout win. I’ll predict Penn State 41 Maryland 10.