Across the last three seasons, there are only two programs that Penn State has lost a regular season football game to, Michigan and Ohio State. With the removal of divisions in the expanded 18-team Big Ten, the Nittany Lions avoided the Wolverines in their disastrous national title defense, but on Saturday in Week 10, the Buckeyes will be in Happy Valley for a top-5 matchup.
It’s not just a recent stretch of dominance by Ohio State in this rivalry, James Franklin is just 1-9 against the Buckeyes since taking over at Penn State in 2014. His only win came at Beaver Stadium in 2016 on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by Grant Haley. Entering this game as a home underdog, Penn State will be hoping for a bit more of that magic on Saturday at Noon. Even before that, Franklin will want some positive injury news on his quarterback Drew Allar, who he deemed a game-time decision early in the week.
Ohio State vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Ohio State -160
- Penn State +132
Spread
- Ohio State -3.5 (-102)
- Penn State +3.5 (-120)
Total
- 46.5 (over -110/under -110)
Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction
Penn State is hoping for a healthy quarterback by game time, and from midweek practice updates, it appears that they’ll have one. Allar is likely to play, but Franklin would prefer for Ohio State to prepare for both quarterbacks, so he has no incentive to provide any clarity regarding Allar’s status after suffering an apparent knee injury in the first half against Wisconsin which kept him out for the rest of the game.
However, Ohio State is certain to have a tough injury situation along its offensive line with both its starting and backup left tackle out. Without Josh Simmons or Zen Michalski, who struggled mightily against Nebraska before he was carted off, Ohio State will likely kick All-American left guard Donovan Jackson out to left tackle and replace him with Luke Montgomery. That will be a huge opportunity for Penn State’s defense to slow down a loaded Buckeye offense and is one of the biggest reasons I expect a low-scoring game on Saturday. Quarterback Will Howard has struggled against pressure this year and he’ll see plenty of it Saturday afternoon.
However, Penn State won’t be able to run up the score on the Ohio State defense. Oregon put up 32 points in a win, exposing Ohio State’s secondary as potentially overrated, but Allar isn’t throwing to Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson as Dillon Gabriel was. The Nittany Lions lack talent at wide receiver, Ohio State has excellent matchups for tight end Tyler Warren with Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles, and since getting banged up early in the year, running back Nick Singleton hasn’t been the same.
Ohio State just has too many easy buttons on offense to take advantage of mismatches with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at wide receiver and QuinShon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield. That overwhelming offensive talent will scrape together enough scoring drives in a 20-16 win. I expect Penn State to take its first loss of the season on Saturday, but 11-1 will be enough to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.