Penn State may not see the best version of Nicholas Singleton again this season

The Penn State offense was severely lacking for explosive plays under offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich last season, and the offseason change to Andy Kotelnicki lit the fuse early in 2024. The Nittany Lions passing game with Drew Allar in Kotelnicki’s system is one of the best in the country at creating big plays, but on the ground, a familiar problem has returned and it may be more about the players than the play-calling. 

Nicholas Singleton was a superstar the second he arrived in Happy Valley. As a true freshman, he ran for 1,061 yards on just 156 carries while splitting time with classmate Kaytron Allen. That duo is still the focal point of the Penn State offense, but Singleton went from a home run hitter in 2022 to a singles and doubles hitter out of the backfield in 2023, and now after a fast start to 2024, the big plays have disappeared again. 

Penn State hasn't seen much of this since 2022.

Though after the frustration of Singleton's sophomore slump, it looked like the Nittany Lions had their game-breaking talent back in Week 1 against West Virginia. Singleton ran for 114 yards on just 13 carries and in Penn State's first three games of this season, he averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt. Next to Allar taking the next step and delivering on his potential as the No. 1 quarterback in the 2023 recruiting class, a resurgent year from Singleton was arguably the most important thing for this team's offense to look like a Big Ten title contender.

In his freshman year, Singleton recorded 18 runs of 15+ yards, and those “breakaway runs” accounted for 59.9% of his rushing yardage for the season. That player returned for the first three weeks of this season, with Singleton racking up seven such runs against West Virginia, Bowling Green, and Kent State. However, Singleton hasn’t broken a 15-yard run since Week 4 and after an injury sidelined him against UCLA in Week 6, his explosiveness is gone and may not come back this season. 

Allen has always been the thunder to Singelton’s lightning. At 220 pounds, his skillset has always been more suitable to short-yardage situations. So, with an undisclosed injury robbing Singleton of his burst, the 226-pound junior running back has become functionally redundant with his counterpart and the Penn State offense has suffered. The Nittany Lions have a 4.9% rushing explosive play rate, which is 13th percentile in the country compared to a 12.4% explosive play rate through the air (92nd percentile). 

Kotelnicki may be the most creative play designer in the country and will continue to put Singleton and Allen into positions to succeed, as evidenced by the team’s 48.9% rushing success rate. A play is considered successful by success rate metrics if it generates half of the necessary yardage for a first down on first or second down or all of the necessary yardage on third or fourth down. 

Singleton’s improved success rate over past seasons is largely a reflection of Kotelnicki’s improved scheme, but even the best play-caller can’t help his running back win a foot race with a linebacker or take away a pursuit angle from a closing safety. A nagging injury hampered Singleton for his entire sophomore season, so unless he got 100% healthy over the bye week, Penn State’s run game will keep the offense on schedule, but it won’t break the game open. 

History tells us that for Singleton, injuries linger and have a significant impact on his effectiveness. That may always be the reality for a 226-pound running back who plays like he’s 40 pounds lighter. That combination of size and speed is what makes Singleton special, but if this is the second straight year that a minor injury zaps him of his burst it will be a major red flag to the NFL and a significant hurdle for Kotelnicki and Allar to navigate on the road to the College Football Playoff.