No. 3 Penn State vs. Wisconsin final odds and prediction for Week 9

No. 3 Penn State has a showdown with Ohio State looming in Week 10, but first, the Nittany Lions need to take care of business up in Madison Wisconsin against the 5-2 Wisconsin Badgers. The 6-0 Nittany Lions are coming off a bye week after escaping LA with a 33-30 overtime win against USC, and while James Franklin’s team is unbeaten, it’s far from perfect. 

Penn State struggled to stop Lincoln Riley’s offense and could have trouble against Wisconsin with offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s air raid style and sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke who has caught fire since taking over for injured veteran transfer Tyler Van Dyke who was lost for the year in Wisconsin’s loss to Alabama. 

With three straight wins, head coach Luke Fickell is on the way to turning Wisconsin around, and with six straight, Franklin has the Nittany Lions headed for the 12-team College Football Playoff. With an upset, the Badgers could establish themselves as a Big Ten contender and make Penn State’s Week 10 visit from the Buckeyes, a must-win game. However, with a Penn State win, the path is clear to the CFP, regardless of the outcome next week. The stakes are high, so let’s dig into the odds. 

Penn State vs. Wisconsin odds, spread, and total

These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline

• Penn State -245
• Wisconsin +198

Spread

• Penn State -6.5 (-120)
• Wisconsin +6.5 (-102)

Total

• 47.5 (over -115/under -105)

Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction

The big question coming into Week 9 is if the Badgers got better or if the schedule got easier. The likely answer is: yes. Wisconsin started the season 2-2 with loss to Alabama and USC, then rattled off convincing wins against Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Now, hosting Penn State, all that improvement will be put to the test against a top-tier Big Ten contender. 

For the Nittany Lions, limited Braedyn Locke’s deep shots will be crucial because Wisconsin has unlocked its deep passing game, however, the 6-foot tall sophomore quarterback is completing 37.5% of his passes when pressured, and averaging 3.6 yards per attempt with two interceptions, so if Penn State’s defensive line can get home, that shouldn’t be a problem. 

On the other side, the Badgers have held three straight opponents to seven points or fewer, but they’ve still been susceptible on the ground. Wisconsin’s defense is 99th in the country in expected points added (EPA)/rush at 0.07. With Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, the Nittany Lions have a very reliable run game, seventh in the country in success rate, but since an injury hampered Singleton and held him out against UCLA, they’ve lacked explosive plays on the ground. 

If Singleton is back to 100% out of the bye week, the Nittany Lions won’t need to ask much of quarterback Drew Allar, but if not, they could struggle to score. I’ll hope for Singleton’s health, and say that Wisconsin’s resurgence has quite a bit to do with an easy stretch of the schedule. Give me Penn State 28 Wisconsin 17.