Penn State quarterback Drew Allar opened up the summer listed behind only four other individuals in the way-too-early Heisman Trophy odds.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was the outright favorite, ahead of Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Before the season started, Allar found himself below or tied with three others: Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson, South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers, and Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck.
The two primary reasons for the drop seemed relatively obvious.
One, look at the history of the Heisman Trophy winners and even the finalists. All have had plenty of standout “wow”-type moments throughout their stellar seasons.
Allar really hadn’t done that in two years as a starting quarterback, even after a steady improvement in Andy Kotelnicki’s first year as offensive coordinator last season.
And two – we’ve said it a million times – is Penn State’s consistent and well-publicized inability to actually win big games.
That doesn’t fall squarely on Allar’s shoulders, but when you consider the fact that head coach James Franklin hasn’t beaten a top-five team since 2016 and is 2-14 in true road games against top-25 competition since taking over the team in 2014, Allar is inherently behind the 8-ball until he can prove otherwise.
“Proving otherwise” is exactly what he failed to do in 2023 and 2024. Penn State went 2-6 against teams ranked inside the top 15 (21-0 against everyone else, of course).
College Football Playoff wins over SMU and Boise State weren’t exactly the statement wins over ranked teams that some fans would like to think they were, either. You have to go back to 2021 to find Penn State’s most recent win over a top-15 team from the Big Ten (Wisconsin).
This year, Penn State opened up with two – uhh – let’s just say non-big games. They took care of business against Nevada and FIU, despite not covering the spread in either game.
But even for as little as there is to glean from these kinds of early-season matchups, Allar didn’t exactly do anything to solidify himself as an early Heisman candidate like a number of other candidates did in similarly “easy” games.
Completing only 19 of 33 passes against FIU, specifically, was not going to move the needle. He has 417 yards and three touchdowns through two weeks of non-conference action against non-competitive opponents who were merely happy to get out of State College with their million-plus-dollar checks.
Now the No. 2-ranked Nittany Lions are set to play Villanova, an FCS program, to wrap up one of the weakest non-conference schedules, if not the outright weakest non-conference schedule, among teams actually considered national championship contenders in 2025.
And the odds still reflect that.
Allar is listed on FanDuel Sportsbook at +1800 to win the Heisman Trophy, so he’s still in the mix, but it’s what’s changed which makes you think he’s not really considered a true contender at this point.
He’s now tied with Smith after Smith was held without one of his signature big plays in Ohio State’s opener against Texas, and he’s ahead of Klubnik, who was a big disappointment in a home loss to LSU and an inexplicably close win over the Troy Trojans.
He’s also ahead of Simpson, whose Crimson Tide team was indeed unable to be saved by Nick Saban (or Paul Finebaum, for that matter) and was, quite frankly, embarrassed in their opener against the Florida State Seminoles.
But four newcomers have entered the fight, and all for the very reasons why we doubted Allar’s chances to begin with.
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer is now tied with Beck at +1000, behind only Nussmeier at +900. Mateer led the Sooners to a huge win over the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines, and he’s already accounted for seven touchdowns, including three on the ground, in his first year in Norman, while completing 71.8% of his passes.
For what it’s worth, he transferred in from Washington State; another guy named Cam Ward transferred from Wazzu to Miami ahead of the 2024 season, and it worked out pretty well for him in the form of a December trip to New York as a Heisman finalist before he was selected at No. 1 overall in April’s NFL Draft.
Then there’s Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore at +1100. He has 479 yards and six touchdowns through the air through two games, including a resounding 69-3 win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys this past Saturday. He has completed 77.3% of his passes.
Moore’s jump to the top is particularly notable because of the fact that Oregon, now ranked No. 4 in the AP poll, is set to head to Happy Valley on Saturday, September 27, presumably for a top-four showdown against Penn State to open up Big Ten play.
That could be a statement game for Moore and Oregon, or it could be a statement game for Allar and Penn State. It could also be an early-season wakeup call for Penn State after opening the year as 40-plus-point favorites in three consecutive games.
The other two are Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (+1400) and Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (+1800).
Stockton’s Bulldogs didn’t exactly impress against the Austin Peay Governors over the weekend, but Stockton himself has emerged as a dual-threat quarterback, with two of his four touchdowns so far this season coming on the ground. Like Mateer and Moore, he has leaned into that “wow” factor that we still really haven’t seen from Allar.
And finally, Dampier has made it look early on like the Utes could be a legitimate threat to win the Big 12. He’s always been able to run; he ran for 1,166 yards and 19 touchdowns at New Mexico in 2024, and he’s been moving the ball with his legs efficiently in his first year in Salt Lake City.
The difference is that this year, he’s also emerged as a prolific passer, completing 79.2% of his passes for 398 yards and five touchdowns.
As for the other primary contenders: Manning is still listed at +1300 despite a rough first start against Ohio State, and Sellers is tied with Allar, Smith, and Dampier at +1800 after a relatively quiet start himself.
With Nussmeier being the favorite at only +900, plus nearly a dozen others listed behind those we already mentioned at somewhere between +2000 and +4000, it’s still obviously a wide open race.
Allar has his work cut out for him if he wants to have a real shot to emerge at the front of it.
Full Heisman Trophy odds can be found here. All odds and availability are subject to change.