Entering the summer, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was listed with the fifth-shortest odds in the nation to win the coming NCAA football season's Heisman Trophy. He was listed behind three other quarterbacks and one wide receiver.
But with the start of the season coming closer, and Penn State's home opener against the Nevada Wolf Pack now just over two weeks away, Allar has dropped significantly down the board when it comes to his chances to win the sport's most prestigious award.
To start the summer months, he was listed behind Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, and Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Those four are still the top four at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Manning leading the way at +700 ahead of his much-anticipated debut as the full-time starter, ahead of Klubnik and Nussmeier at +900 and Smith at +1100.
Now Allar, however, is behind two more quarterbacks and tied with another.
Ty Simpson, Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson is now listed fifth at +1600 ahead of his first year as a starter, and while he isn't nearly as highly touted as Manning is, this listing kind of makes sense.
The last time there was any uncertainty at any point during an offseason over Alabama's starting quarterback was in 2021. Bryce Young was named the starter and won the Heisman Trophy that year, leading the Tide to an SEC Championship and a National Championship Game appearance in the process.
Additionally, Simpson benefits from having a second-year wideout with Jeremiah Smith-level upside in Ryan Williams, who averaged 18 yards on 48 receptions and scored eight touchdowns as a 17-year-old a year ago.
Kalen DeBoer's bunch should also be extra hungry in 2025 after being last year's first team out of the College Football Playoff, despite a win over the eventual SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina Gamecocks
Then there is South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who is listed sixth at +1700. Quite frankly, I was surprised when Allar was ahead of Sellers earlier in the offseason to begin with, given how strong Sellers was down the stretch in 2024.
After losing by just two points in Tuscaloosa as 19.5-point underdogs, Norris led the Gamecocks on a six-game winning streak, coming out of pretty much nowhere to contend for one of the final CFP spots, even if they ultimately came up short.
Coming off of a season in which he ran for 674 yards and seven touchdowns, Norris is as dynamic as any dual threat quarterback in the country, and the development of his passing game in his second year as a starter could very well determine whether or not he ends up in New York come December.
Carson Beck, Miami Hurricanes
Finally, we have Miami Hurricanes transfer Carson Beck, who is now tied with Allar at +1800. I've never been as high on Beck as a lot of people, and it's pretty clear that he actually took a step back in his second year as the Georgia Bulldogs' starting quarterback last year.
I do have to admit that the fifth-year man, who showed plenty of promise two seasons ago, probably has a bit more upside under head coach Mario Cristobal and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson than he did at Georgia.
Just look at last year, when former zero-star recruit Cam Ward, at that point also in his fifth NCAA season and first in Coral Gables, turned himself into the No. 1 pick in this past April's NFL Draft under the same guidance.
Why has Drew Allar dropped?
This drop is probably down to two factors. The obvious one, which is more about the team than the player, is the fact that it seems like every year it seems like it's supposedly "Penn State's year", it, well, isn't.
With the Nittany Lions ranked No. 2 in the preseason AP poll, their highest since 1997 and notably one spot higher than Ohio State, this feels like it could be another one of those seasons.
I know I sound like a broken record here. But James Franklin hasn't beaten a team ranked inside the top five in nearly nine years.
And entering his 12th year as Penn State's head coach, he is still seeking his first true road win against a team ranked inside the top 10. His record in such games against teams ranked inside the top 25 is an absolutely dismal 2-14.
It's a classic case of "need to see it to believe it", and after more than a decade, we're all still searching.
The other is the fact that Allar, even for as pro-ready as a lot of scouts think he is, really hasn't dazzled fans with any true "wow" moments in his first two years as the starting quarterback. If you look back at the Heisman Trophy winner, and even the finalists, over the last X number of years, every single one of those guys has produced not one but several of those moments over the course of a season.
The 21-year-old Medina, Ohio native certainly made significant steps under first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki last year, even if his touchdown-to-interception ratio did drop off from 25-to-2 to 24-to-8 from the previous season.
The fact that eight of his 10 starting offensive teammates are set to be back for another year in Happy Valley should help, as should the addition of several big-name wide receiver transfers.
But he clearly has some work to do if he is truly going to break into that class of upper tier Heisman contenders.
Penn State's 2025 season is scheduled to begin with the first of four consecutive home games at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, August 30.
Full Heisman Trophy odds can be found here. All odds and availability are subject to change.