Hiring Matt Campbell, in and of itself, was not necessarily a mistake for Penn State. His slow start in Year 1 isn’t necessarily indicative of how his tenure is going to play out, and even if it is a failure, it won’t be exclusively his fault. He’s a proven head coach with a track record of doing more with less. Penn State could have done a lot worse after firing James Franklin.
He may still be incredibly successful in Happy Valley. That won't make Penn State's search last season any less messy or the massive contract Penn State paid to pry him away from Iowa State any less cumbersome.
Campbell could still be the right guy for the job, but the 54-day process that led Kraft to him after the early signing period for the 2026 class was riddled with mistakes. Mistakes that Florida State, finally free of Mike Norvell after firing him on Sunday, should learn from. Mistakes the rest of college football should probably stop repeating.
When will college football coaching salaries come back down to earth?
Kirby Smart is the highest-paid coach in college football. He makes $13.3 million a year. Curt Cignetti and Lane Kiffin are just behind at $13 million, and 15 coaches make $10 million a year or more. In most cases, those contracts are fully guaranteed and carry a massive buyout.
The most expensive rosters in college football this season cost roughly $50 million. That means Kiffin is making roughly 26% of what his entire roster at LSU is making this year. According to Sportico, Andy Reid is the highest-paid coach in the NFL, taking home $20 million a year. That’s $7 million more than Smart, but also less than 7% of the $300+ million NFL salary cap.
That’s also for three-time Super Bowl Champion Andy Reid. First-time head coach Klint Kubiak is making $12 million from the Raiders this year (about 4%).
Because your money is better spent on the field
In previous eras, it made sense to pay coaches an exorbitant amount. They were how you got the talent you needed to win. Now, money is how you get the talent you need to win, not regardless of who your coach is, Smart’s roster at Georgia is estimated to cost about $31 million and is one of the best in the country, so the greats clearly get players to come for a discount, but players weren’t exactly turning away Ole Miss’s $40 million because Pete Golding is a first-time head coach.
Even Nick Saban understood that his discount was only going to get him so far, so he retired.
Hiring the right coach is important, but aside from a few rare exceptions, like Smart and Cignetti, your money goes so much farther when it’s spent on the field. Ask yourself this: Who is more important, relative to an average replacement, to Ohio State’s national championship hopes, Ryan Day or Jeremiah Smith. It’s Smith and I don’t even think it’s worth a debate.
Programs shouldn’t be in a rush to outbid other Power 4 programs for a head coach as Kraft ran all over the sport begging to do and getting everyone a raise in the process. And when they do find their coach, there’s no reason to pay him top of market and hamstrung your future self with a massive buyout. That’s the reason FSU couldn’t move on from Norvell after he went 2-10 in 2024. Coaching stability is no longer the most important thing to sell to recruits because if he’s fired, they’ll just move on too.
Luckily, in Penn State’s case, James Franklin’s roughly $50 million buyout had an offset clause that allowed the university and Franklin to settle for $9 million. Florida State doesn’t appear to have the same provision for Norvell, who is set to take home $51 million from a contract that ran through 2031. That’s $51 million that Florida State can’t put towards closing the $20 million delta between its roster and Miami’s which is running roughshod over the ACC, not because Mario Cristobal, the man who lost to Georgia Tech a few years ago because he decided he was too good for victory formation, is such a genius, but because it has the most talent.
Eventually, after publicly missing on BYU’s Kalani Sitake, Kraft paid Campbell’s $2 million buyout to Iowa State and handed him a fully guaranteed, eight-year, $70.5 million contract. So, if it doesn’t work out, rather than taking another ride on the coaching carousel and resetting, which is as simple as ever in the portal era, Penn State will be forced to swallow a poision pill or punt on multiple seasons while paying the “suck tax” that Florida State has been in the portal and recruiting.
Will anyone break the vicious cycle?
Again, Campbell was a good hire in a vacuum. But Kraft’s many dalliances with standing Power 4 head coaches placed Campbell behind the eight-ball for Year 1 and spending on a massive Beaver Stadium renovation are directing funds away from the field. His process was sloppy and the contract he handed Campbell was irresponsible.
Campbell’s tenure may not work out for any number of reasons, many of which are unrelated to his ability to coach a football team. And if it does, Penn State is stuck with him.
College football needs to break this vicious cycle. Florida State could be the one to do it. There will be a temptation to flirt with the Eli Drinkwitzes and Kenny Dillinghams of the world. But hiring a first-time head coach or a young up-and-comer, and paying him less with a heavily incentive-laden contract while directing the freed up money into a roster upgrade, is the cogent way to proceed in this era.
Kraft didn’t see that. Athletic director-less Florida State probably won’t either. But eventually, somebody will, and they’ll be better off for it.
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