When the Big Ten expanded to 18 teams this offseason with the introduction of UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington, the conference finally did away with divisions. No more leaders and legends, no more Iowa or Wisconsin winning the putrid Big Ten West, and for Penn State, no more Ohio State and Michigan every single year.
Without divisions, it should have been easier for James Franklin to take the Nittany Lions back to the Big Ten championship game for the first time since 2016, but in 2024, Ohio State still got in his way. With a loss to the Buckeyes, who lost to Oregon, Penn State is on the outside of the four-team Big Ten title game picture heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Nittany Lions don’t control their own destiny, they need some help, but there are a few tiebreakers that could provide it. Oregon clinched the first spot in the Big Ten title game with its Week 12 win over Wisconsin, so here is everything that needs to happen for Penn State to play the Ducks in Indianapolis.
First, Penn State must win out to finish 11-1. Assuming they do that with wins over Minnesota and Maryland, then the easiest and most likely path is for Ohio State to beat Indiana in their Week 13 showdown in Columbus and then for Ohio State to lose to Michigan to end the season. In that scenario, Ohio State would have two conference losses (Oregon and Michigan), and Penn State would likely nudge Indiana by a tiebreaker. Here are the Big Ten tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head regular season matchups
- Record against all common conference opponents
- Record against common conference opponent with best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings
- Best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
- Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric)
- Random drawing by commissioner
Indiana and Penn State, if both finish 11-1 with a loss to the Buckeyes and the Buckeyes finish 10-2, would likely go down to the fourth tiebreaker and at this point, Penn State would come out on top and sneak to Indianapolis.
If Indiana beats Ohio State, the Hoosiers are virtually locked in. Even with a loss in the final week of the regular season to 1-9 Purdue, IU would finish 8-1 in conference play with a win over the common conference opponent with the best conference record.
Penn State fans should root for Ohio State on Saturday because that’s the team’s only sliver of hope to get to Indy.
In the much more likely scenario that Penn State gets left out of the Big Ten title game, it could actually be a good thing. If the Nittany Lions go 11-1, they will certainly be an at-large team in the 12-team College Football Playoff, likely hosting a first-round game. While the Big Ten champion will get a first-round bye, the loser will be playing in the first round after playing an extra game in Indianapolis. Penn State wouldn’t have the first-round bye but wouldn’t have the additional wear-and-tear.