Coming into the season, it appeared that Penn State had the easiest schedule in the Big Ten, and that’s probably still somewhat true with no Indiana, Ohio State, or UCLA, which is one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS.
However, two of the teams in the conference outside of UCLA that have seemingly leveled up the most, Northwestern and Wisconsin, were among the first four conference matchups for Matt Campbell’s inaugural year in Happy Valley. Now, beating a Penn State team that is materially worse than expectations is part of both programs’ resurgences, but it still gives a different shape to the Nittany Lions’ 0-4 record in conference play.
Now, coming out of the bye week, Penn State is seemingly settling into the real soft underbelly of the Big Ten, with Purdue, Washington, a pesky Minnesota team, Rutgers, and Maryland left on the slate. Minnesota is the only team in that group with a winning record in Big Ten play, so Penn State could potentially make some hay.
Still, do the Nittany Lions, still winless against Power 4 opponents, deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown over any Big Ten team? Because they are at home in Week 9, at least to start the week.
Purdue vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Purdue +245
- Penn State -310
Spread
- Purdue +7.5 (-108)
- Penn State -7.5 (-112)
Total
- 53.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
There’s no guarantee that Penn State can score with Purdue
By net adjusted EPA/play, the Purdue offense ranks No. 25 in the country. By points per drive, it ranks No. 48, and at its best, this Purdue offense, led by Ryan Browne and Fame Ijeboi, hung 41 points on Minnesota. Sure, that was a letdown spot for the Golden Gophers after beating Michigan, but no matter how focused, that defensive line has a lot more talent than Penn State’s.
Now, Purdue’s defense is the reason Penn State is favored. It ranks No. 122 in success rate and No. 128 in net EPA/play. Washington’s backup QB carved up that unit with an offensive line as leaky as Penn State’s and a run game as broken. Still, at no point this year has Penn State proven itself to be capable of scoring touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone, and unless Koby Howard is back on the field and close to 100%, there isn’t much of an explosive element to the Nittany Lion attack.
The positive news for Penn State is that this line seems to be baking in Howard’s return. It’s hard to argue that Penn State deserves to be more than a touchdown favorite, even at home, without him.
Penn State should win this game. There was real progress against Michigan, even if the wheels fell off for the defense in the second half. But you have to wonder if the betting line and public perception haven’t quite caught all the way up to how talent-deficient this Penn State roster is.
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