According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Big Ten has somehow been the most predictable Power Conference in college football. That’s right: the league that has a preseason top-5 team at 4-3, and UCLA, Wisconsin, and Northwestern have legitimate threats to make the College Football Playoff, is considered predictable compared to the rest of the sport.
Yep, college football has gone full crazy. It’s not easy to sort out, especially the mess in the middle, but even after Indiana’s scare, the true top and bottom of the Big Ten remain as clear as ever.
Tier 4
18. Maryland 2-5 (0-4) BYE
17. Rutgers 2-5 (1-3) at Northwestern 42-14 L
16. Michigan State 2-6 (0-5) at UCLA 28-10 L
Michigan State put up a good fight against UCLA for about a quarter and a half before it seemingly remembered how many second-and third-stringers it is down to all over the roster, including at quarterback, and let the Bruins wash over them. Rutgers never stood a chance against a legitimately good Northwestern team, and Maryland was just lucky to have a bye week so it could wash its hands of Mike Locksley.
Tier 3
15. Illinois 4-3 (2-2) vs. Oregon 21-10 W
14. Purdue 3-4 (2-2) BYE
13. Washington 4-3 (1-3) BYE
12. Penn State 3-4 (0-4) BYE
11. Iowa 5-2 (2-2) at Minnesota 13-10 L
10. Michigan 4-3 (1-3) vs. Indiana 13-6 L
9. Minnesota 5-2 (3-1) vs. Iowa 13-10 W
8. Nebraska 5-2 (2-2) BYE
7. USC 6-2 (3-2) at Wisconsin 24-7 L
6. Oregon 4-3 (2-2) at Illinois 21-10 L
5. Wisconsin 5-2 (3-1) vs. USC 24-7 W
It could be an overreaction to thrust Wisconsin to the top of Tier 3 after its 17-point win over USC in Madison on Saturday. However, somebody has to be at the top of this heap, and a defense that can hold Lincoln Riley’s outfit to seven points, as its quarterback, Colton Joseph, goes 12-for-14 for 58 yards and averages fewer than three yards per dropback on the other side of the ball, is going to stand out.
Michigan’s defense is elite as well, and its QB situation is just as shaky. Is there a meaningful discrepancy between those two teams other than the favorable schedule Wisconsin has drawn? Probably not, but then, there isn’t a whole lot of a gap in this entire tier, especially considering Illinois beat Oregon by multiple scores on Saturday, while averaging fewer than three yards per dropback.
I’ll address the Oregon elephant in the room. That team is dead. It wasted the year by elevating Drew Mehringer, who was fired on Sunday, to replace Will Stein as offensive coordinator, and it doesn’t have its starting quarterback. Still, with Mehringer out, and the level of talent on this roster, I’d still pick the Ducks on a neutral against every team behind them, as crazy as that sounds. That’s the difference between a power ranking and an AP Poll-type of ranking.
Illinois has won two in a row, but against the two most depleted rosters in the league: Michigan State and Oregon. I’m not ready to declare this team a contender, or even especially competent, but Bret Bielema appears to be going bowling once again.
Elsewhere in this mess in the middle, Minnesota has two significant wins after claiming the Little Brown Jug and Floyd of Rosedale, but there’s not much exciting about a team that beat Iowa by three on a walk-off field goal with just 208 total yards of offense.
Tier 2
4. Northwestern 6-1 (3-1) vs. Rutgers 42-14 W
3. UCLA 7-0 (5-0) vs. Michigan State 28-10 W
Michigan State hung around with Northwestern in Week 7 with a heroic effort in the Pat Fitzgerald revenge game, but after escaping the tension of that reunion, the Wildcats got right back to pounding bad teams with a 42-14 win over Rutgers. This team is a legitimate CFP contender, whether or not anyone cares to notice, and Chip Kelly has seemingly coached all the crazy out of Aiden Chiles.
UCLA doesn’t look quite as dominant without Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, but right now the Bruins are one of three undefeated teams left in the FBS. That’s worth a whole lot.
Tier 1
2. Ohio State 6-1 (4-0) BYE
1. Indiana 7-1 (4-1) at Michigan 13-6 W (OT)
Am I concerned about Indiana’s offense? Yes. But at least Josh Hoover was healthy enough to play (though he didn’t play well against Michigan). Until we see what Ohio State looks like with Luke Fahey at quarterback, I’ll keep the Hoosiers at No. 1 and assume that Hoover will get incrementally better as he gets healthier, even knowing full well his ceiling is a few floors below Fernando Mendoza’s.
My real concern about Indiana is the offensive line, which is meaningfully worse than it was in 2025, but it was good enough to come a few inches from beating Ohio State two weeks ago, and there probably isn’t a defensive line that’s going to test it the way the Buckeyes and the Wolverines have the past two weeks (though Minnesota does have some real juice up front).
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