College Football Playoff predictions: Is Penn State a semifinal or championship game team in 2025?

Penn State football's road to the 2026 College Football Playoff Championship Game starts in less than two weeks, but CFP predictions aren't looking so hot for the Nittany Lions.

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released their playoff predictions on Aug. 15. Bonagura and Schlabach put Penn State in the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, respectively, and have head coach James Franklin's team facing the Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 7 and No. 6, respectively) in the Rose Bowl Game. Both have Texas in the No. 1 seed and Schlabach put Clemson above the Nittany Lions at No. 2.

"It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that's fine," Bonagura wrote regarding the adjustment to straight seeding in place for 2026. "In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia)."

Out of the quarterfinals, Bonagura had Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State moving on out of his top four seeds (his No. 4 Clemson losing to No. 5 Georgia) while Schlabach had all four advancing. For Bonagura, this means the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions would meet again after facing off in Week 10 of the regular season. Schlabach has Penn State facing Clemson in the semifinals instead.

"A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game's best quarterbacks," Schlabach wrote. "It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney's staff this season."

Surprisingly, the Nittany Lions move on in Bonagura's bracket in the Big Ten rival rematch while the Tigers claim the National Championship Game spot in Schlabach's. Though Bonagura didn't give his definitive national title winner, it would be disheartening to see Penn State suffer the same fate from the 2025 Orange Bowl as predicted in Schlabach's bracket.

Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, On3's Joel Klatt thinks the same will happen, except instead of losing to Clemson in the semifinals, he has Franklin's team (No. 1 in Klatt's bracket) losing to Ryan Day's.

The Big Ten rivalry won't be absurd to expect in the postseason. The Week 10 battle will definitely give insight into how seeding might place the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes, but it could also predict who takes it in the CFP. If Ohio State loses in the regular season and meets Penn State again later on, it's going to be an uphill battle for Franklin to prove he can handle the pressure again. If the Nittany Lions lose in the regular season, maybe that will ignite a different fire under them to end the Buckeyes' season later on.

Josh Pate also posted his CFP bracket prediction, but didn't list his winners. He has Penn State in the No. 1 seed followed by No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Texas, and No. 4 Oregon. As Bonagura said, multiple byes from the same conference should be expected for the 2026 CFP bracket. It's either going to be the SEC with multiple (likely two) or the Big Ten. If not, it'll be both.