CFP committee sets a troubling precedent for Penn State, ups pressure on Nittany Lions in Big Ten Championship Game

This season, Penn State fans haven’t had to pay attention to the College Football Playoff rankings release until very late. This week, in the penultimate rankings before conference championship week, the Nittany Lions moved up one spot from No. 4 to No. 3 following Ohio State’s upset loss to Michigan in the final week of the regular season. However, the action down at No. 14 in the rankings set a troubling precedent for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions that could up the pressure on Penn State to beat Oregon in Indianapolis on Saturday. 

It’s obvious why Penn State would want to win the Big Ten Championship. Beyond just adding another trophy to the trophy case in Happy Valley, it would ensure a top-two seed in the 12-team CFP bracket and possibly the No. 1 overall spot. The top four seeds, which go to the four-highest-ranked conference champions also include first-round byes, which would get the Nittany Lions that much closer to a national championship. However, the rankings of No. 14 South Carolina, No. 13 Ole Miss, and No. 11 Alabama demonstrated why Penn State really doesn’t want to lose the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Conventional wisdom coming out of these rankings says that Penn State, even with a loss to Oregon, won’t fall below the No. 6 seed in the 12-team CFP bracket, and could nab the No. 5 seed, which sets up an ideal path against the No. 12 and No. 4 seeds into the semifinals. However, it may not be so simple because the Ohio State Buckeyes are looming at No. 6 in these rankings, and with the No. 8 seed in the projected bracket. 

South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Alabama all finished the year at 9-3, and coming off a win over Clemson in Week 14, there was buzz that the Gamecocks could potentially catapult themselves into the final at-large bid. However, Shane Beamer’s team only moved up one spot and couldn’t even get ahead of Ole Miss for one reason only, head-to-head results. South Carolina’s losses are better than Mississippi’s and the Gamecocks are playing better right now, but two of South Carolina’s three losses were to Ole Miss and Alabama, and the committee is weighing that heavily. 

Currently, there are two teams between Penn State and Ohio State (Notre Dame and Georgia), and that may be enough cushion. However, if Penn State falls to Oregon, even with an extra win, it will be the two-loss Nittany Lions compared to the two-loss Buckeyes, both with losses to the Ducks, and more importantly with a head-to-head result that did not go Penn State’s way. 

James Franklin’s team has just one ranked win, early in the season over Illinois, which was ranked 21st on Tuesday night. The resume isn’t strong enough to hold up under intense scrutiny, and that could allow the committee to send the Nittany Lions tumbling past the Buckeyes, possibly on the road in the first round of the CFP, and maybe even playing a rematch in Columbus. The committee set the precedent with South Carolina, and yes, conference championship games are different, and teams theoretically shouldn’t be punished for losing an extra game that the other team didn’t even make, but it’d be easily justifiable because of the head-to-head result. 

Tuesday night was borderline celebratory for a fanbase so desperate to finish the season in the top four over the past decade. However, the precedent that the committee set puts that much more pressure on Penn State to pull off an upset over the only remaining undefeated team in the country.