Penn State projected with a perfect path through the College Football Playoff in latest rankings

On Saturday, Ohio State’s loss gifted Penn State a spot into the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis, but on Tuesday night, the Nittany Lions may have gotten something even better. James Franklin’s team moved up one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 3 heading into that matchup with Oregon, and for right now that gives Penn State an ideal path through the 12-team CFP bracket. 

As the second-highest-ranked team in the Big Ten, No. 1 Oregon is still projected for the top overall seed, the conference’s automatic qualifier, and a first-round bye. That moved Penn State to the No. 5 seed in the tournament, which would be an excellent consolation prize if it’s where they land with a loss to the Ducks on Saturday. 

The best path is to win the Big Ten, but at No. 5, Penn State is currently projected to play possible Big 12 champ Arizona State, the No. 15 team in the country. As the fifth-highest-ranked conference champ, the Sun Devils would claim the final spot and head to Happy Valley for Round 1 at Beaver Stadium. Kenny Dillingham’s team has had a remarkable season but would clearly be the most vulnerable team in the CFP. 

The Nittany Lions would be considerable favorites in that matchup. The Action Network's Brett McMurphy released spreads for the projected first-round games and the Nittany Lions would be the biggest favorite.

If the Nittany Lions were to advance past Round 1 as the bracket currently lays out, that would mean a quarterfinal meeting with the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion, No. 10 Boise State. The Broncos and Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty have been impressive this year and nearly knocked off Oregon early in the season, but potentially facing the committee’s 15th and 10th-best teams en route to the CFP semifinal could be the perfect path to national title contention for Franklin in his 11th season at Penn State. 

But wait, what about the Buckeyes…

There’s one big problem with this potential consolation prize for the loser of the Big Ten title game. If it’s Oregon, the Ducks would certainly be the No. 5 seed, but if it’s Penn State, the Nittany Lions could find themselves behind either the loser of the SEC Championship (Georgia or Texas) or the Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Even after a loss to Michigan, Ryan Day’s group only fell from No. 2 to No. 6 in the country, staying above Tennessee, the SEC’s third-highest-ranked team. If Penn State loses on Saturday, the Nittany Lions would have played an extra game, but two-loss Ohio State almost certainly jumps two-loss Penn State because of the head-to-head result. 

We’ve yet to learn how the committee will treat conference championship game losers in the 12-team format. They’ll likely be hesitant to punish the teams playing an extra game because it could lead to a push from the best teams in these conferences to abolish championship games, which are the conference’s beloved cash cows. However, the committee did set a powerful precedent in this week’s rankings. 

South Carolina knocked off Clemson on the road on Saturday to finish the regular season at 9-3 and as one of the hottest teams in the country. There was speculation that the Gamecocks could potentially jump Ole Miss and Alabama for the final at-large spot, then they only moved up one spot to No. 14. Shane Beamers' team might be playing great football lately, and South Carolina’s loss to LSU came with quarterback LaNorris Sellers injured and questionable officiating, but Gamecock’s other two losses were to Alabama and Ole Miss. Resumes are important, but head-to-head results matter most and could spoil a dream draw for the Nittany Lions if they fall short in Indy.