We’re already in the heart of college basketball's exhibition season, and on November 2, the 2026-27 regular season will begin in earnest. This year, the sport’s postseason is expanded to 76 teams, and while the SEC and the Big East are the biggest spenders on the hardwood, the Big Ten, which finally ended its national title drought with Michigan winning it all last April, will look to put as many as 10 teams, or maybe more, into the field.
Which 10 will it be? Well, that picture isn’t clear in the preseason. The middle of the pack is a jumbled mess with plenty of questions still to be answered. Luckily, though, the top and the bottom are easy to see.
Tier 5
18. Penn State
17. Northwestern
16. Rutgers
Mike Rhoades decided to go the veteran route after handing the keys to Kayden Mingo, the highest-ranked recruit in program history, in 2025-26. If Josh Reed gets eligible to fit in on the wing between a European-heavy front court with Roko Prkacin and Ivan Juric, and a transfer-heavy backcourt of Jay Rodgers and Robert Blums, maybe the Nittany Lions could threaten for a spot in the expanded NCAA Tournament field, but that’s unlikely.
Northwestern and Rutgers, meanwhile, should keep Penn State company in the basement of the Big Ten; Rutgers, still licking its wounds from a big swing gone wrong in 2024-25 with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, and Northwestern, finally exiting a fruitful era that began with Boo Buie and ended with Nick Martinelli’s final season of eligibility last year.
Tier 4
15. Oregon
14. Washington
13. Minnesota
According to CBS Sports’ reporting, Washington is the lowest-budget team in the conference and elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, Dana Altman decided to retire in October and hand the program to interim head coach Tony Stubblefield. Both teams could be a disaster, but for now they’ll stay a tier above the bottom.
Also in Tier 4 are Niko Medved’s Golden Gophers. Medved always outperforms his resources and talent, and this year his roster has improved, reuniting with Kyan Evans, whom he coached at Colorado State before his disastrous one-year stint at North Carolina. Minnesota could easily punch above its weight class this year and vault itself out of this range.
Tier 3
12. Wisconsin
11. Maryland
10. Iowa
9. Purdue
8. Ohio State
7. Indiana
6. UCLA
5. Nebraska
4. USC
Beyond the top three, there isn’t much clarity in the Big Ten. The LA teams, USC and UCLA, both have major talent upside. USC has Alijah Arenas and Rodney Rice back to finally play together in the backcourt after staggering injuries last season, in what is a make-or-break year for Eric Musselman. UCLA meanwhile is looking to build an incubator of veteran talent around 17-year-old freshman Nikola Kusturica, a 6-foot-9 playmaking wing.
If both hit their ceiling, the West Coast swing won’t be easy for any team in the conference to navigate. But there’s a significant potential downside in both cases as well.
Elsewhere, Nebraska is looking to recreate last year’s success with Pryce Sandfort back to shoot about 10 threes a game and knock down 40% of them. Ohio State could be improved with a roster built around Justin Pippen, who had a good year at Cal in 2025-26, but it remains to be seen how significant a loss Bruce Thornton will be.
Indiana supersized its front court after being far too small to compete with the mass of the Big Ten last season, but how will Samet Yigitoglu and Aiden Sherrell pair together in the front court?
There are questions all over, and that’s why even with lesser rosters, elite coaches like Matt Painter, Ben McCollum, and maybe a sub-elite but incredibly bankable coach in Greg Gard, belong in this tier as well.
Tier 2
3. Michigan
2. Michigan State
Michigan brought in a nice transfer portal haul, but missed on the final piece, potentially Juke Harris, who went to Tennessee, to really put it over the top. The rim dominance may not be at quite the same level, and the backcourt, while talented with Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney, a true sophomore breakout candidate, lacks depth after five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. tore his ACL in September.
Plus, while Mike Boynton is a good coach who got a raw deal at Oklahoma State, he’s not Dusty May.
Tom Izzo is still Tom Izzo; however, Michigan State will be just fine. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the best point guard in the country, so this team is going to consistently get good shots and thrive in the open floor, with Coen Carr throwing down dunks over everyone.
Do the Spartans have another shot-creator when the game slows down in the half-court? And how does the spacing work in the front court with Jaxon Kohler now at BYU? But even those limitations probably won’t show up except against the best competition or in the postseason.
Tier 1
1. Illinois
For about 355 of the 365 teams in Division I, getting Andrej Stojakovic back for his senior year would be celebrated as keeping a star who could carry the team to the NCAA Tournament. For Illinois, he’s a nice piece who can give an efficient 15 points a game and help take the playmaking load off David Mirkovic and transfer point guard Stefan Vaaks.
Even with Keaton Wagler gone, Illinois is one of the most talented teams in the country, certainly the most talented team in the Big Ten, and has rare continuity in the transfer portal era. How Vaaks and five-star freshman Quentin Coleman integrate will be critical, but with Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers in the front court, this team is going to have such a high floor on both ends that Brad Underwood can take some time to strike the right balance.
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