After falling to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship and claiming the No. 6 seed in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, Penn State will host ACC runner-up SMU at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions are 8.5-point favorites ahead of the Noon ET kickoff on Saturday with a favorable path to advance to the CFP semifinal. However, James Franklin has struggled to win “the big one” at Penn State, and every one the rest of the way is a very big one.
The Mustangs boast one of the most dynamic offenses that Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen has faced this season, and his unit is coming off allowing a 45-point performance to the Ducks in Indy. So, these three players will need to play well, first for Penn State to slow down SMU, and second, for the Nittany Lions offense to keep pace if SMU turns the game into a shootout.
Nolan Rucci was excellent at right tackle in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon, allowing just one pressure at no sacks while Penn State ran the ball effectively. He has provided valuable depth behind Anthony Donkoh after the Nittany Lion’s right tackle was lost for the year, and he’ll have a big test on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium against Elijah Roberts.
The 6-foot-4 295-pound oversized edge rusher is eighth in the country in total quarterback pressures with 54. He has seven sacks and a 22.8% pass-rush win rate, which is the sixth-best in the country. He’ll likely test Rucci on the right side and if Penn State’s backup tackle can’t hold up one-on-one, it will force either a running back or tight end to stay in and help in pass protection. That’s uniquely problematic for a Penn State team that lacks wide receiver talent and relies on its tight ends and running backs as primary pass catchers.
By now Penn State fans know that Tom Allen likes to bring pressure and play-man coverage behind it. That philosophy has helped him stifle the opposing run game and most Big Ten competition doesn’t have the playmakers on the outside to take advantage. However, Ohio State and Oregon did and so does SMU, plus the Mustangs have the most dynamic quarterback that Allen has faced this year.
Jennings is by no means a run-first quarterback, he often flees the pocket to hunt for a big play downfield, but he can burn defenses with his legs, especially if that defense is turning its back in man coverage. That will likely leave either Kobe King or Tony Rojas to spy Jennings and limit the impact he makes on the ground, which is no easy task.
Defensively, SMU has been very tough against the, but the Mustangs are susceptible on the back end. They’re fourth in rushing defense, allowing 93.4 yards a game, and 91st against the pass, allowing 232.7. One of the biggest reasons is the team’s lack of a reliable No. 2 cornerback. Deuce Harmon has been reliable, but throwing at Brandon Crossley on the other side has been a good idea for opposing quarterbacks all season.
Crossley has allowed 31 catches for 551 yards and three touchdowns with just four pass breakups. If Harmon shadows Harrison Wallace III, and Tyler Warren draws constant attention from safeties and linebackers over the middle of the field, Drew Allar will be forced to throw Evans’ way at least a few times on Saturday.
There’s a good chance that Penn State has the most success on the ground of any team against SMU this year, but if Kevin Jennings can turn this game into a shootout, Allar will need Evans to come through to torch the Mustang’s biggest defensive weakness.